There is a serious danger the Dublin Bus dispute could spread to CIE's other companies if it is not resolved quickly. At the same time, there is no obvious way management or the Government can concede the demands of the National Bus and Rail Union without killing the infant Programme for Prosperity and Fairness before it has time to draw breath.
If timing is everything in industrial relations, the NBRU could not have chosen a worse moment to pursue a "no strings attached" 20 per cent pay claim. Clause seven of the pay section of the PPF makes it clear that any increases over and above national agreements must have "due regard" to the "economic, commercial and employment circumstances of the particular firm, employment or industry". Dublin Bus is currently dependent on a £13.4 million Government subvention, up from £3.5 million four years ago.
The PPF has yet to come into force within Dublin Bus, where employees are still constrained technically by the last phase of Partnership 2000. But the abandonment of productivity-linked pay increases in such a demonstrably unprofitable public sector company would sound the death knell for the new national agreement.
The NBRU general secretary, Mr Peter Bunting, has made the point repeatedly that Dublin Bus drivers have conceded a great deal of productivity over the years. What sparked off the current demand for a 20 per cent increase is the fact that talks on a similar increase for Bus Eireann drivers are close to concluding. CIE management is quick to point out that Bus Eireann drivers are conceding massive productivity in return for the money. The unions retort that this is the first major productivity deal in Bus Eireann in over 20 years, so there is a lot more to give.
At the same time a senior manager was able to point out yesterday that for all the productivity given so far, passengers on Dublin Bus still can't expect the centre doors to be opened as a matter of course, although they were introduced in 1966. "The first generation of buses with centre doors went to the scrapyard virgins," he said.
However, there are some indications that not all drivers are as determined to pursue a protracted strike. SIPTU, which represents more than 950 of the 2,100 drivers, has yet to serve strike notice. It has not put a price tag on its own pay claim, beyond saying any increase must be "substantial". It is also seeking adequate pension provision for widows and orphans, and a serious partnership process within the company.
The union's regional group secretary for CIE, Mr Noel Dowling, is still calling for talks without preconditions. He played a leading role in settling the first phase of the nurses' dispute, which saw staff nurses secure substantial pay increases. He says a strike is premature. The negotiators should see what is on offer and leave it to the drivers to have the final say in a new ballot.
Relations at local level between SIPTU and NBRU shop stewards are not good. The NBRU is not prepared to wait. Besides, unlike SIPTU, it is overwhelmingly made up of drivers, is outside the Irish Congress of Trade Unions and has no interest in propping up national agreements.
It is also a small union with limited resources. That is why elements within the NBRU are arguing that if a strike has to be resumed next Tuesday, it should be extended to the DART, suburban rail and inter-city train services. They argue that the Government might be willing to sit out a city-wide bus strike but could not stand the heat of a full-scale public transport strike.
The other side of that coin is that train drivers are hardly likely to come out for any length of time in support of bus drivers without looking for concessions of their own. The NBRU and SIPTU have just concluded a productivity-based pay increase for mainline train drivers that will boost basic pay from £17,500 to £29,500 a year.
Unfortunately this has still to be implemented and is the subject of a legal challenge by the new Irish Locomotive Drivers' Association. It is just possible that deal could unravel under pressure. Similarly, the DART system is only emerging from industrial relations difficulties caused by the planned extension of the service to Greystones and Malahide.
As Mr Bunting repeatedly points out, the underlying cause of the drivers' grievances in all three CIE companies has been inadequate Government subventions. That funding is now coming onstream to provide new buses, rolling stock and infrastructure.
There is cash available to improve public transport - £2.2 billion to be precise - and the dispute at Dublin Bus can be resolved. But the NBRU will have to get itself off the hook of a "no strings attached" pay increase if this strike is to be settled within the terms of Partnership 2000 and the PPF.