Comeback Kid for last hurrah on triumphant Irish return only

Edwin O'Connor's The Last Hurrah was a sentimental novel about an Irish-American politician at the end of a long career in big…

Edwin O'Connor's The Last Hurrah was a sentimental novel about an Irish-American politician at the end of a long career in big-city politics. Bill Clinton's last hurrah comes at a remarkably early age for a retiring US president - he's only 54 - and it is safe to predict that we haven't seen the last of the Comeback Kid, who may even return to the White House some day as First Gentleman to President Rodham Clinton.

His last hurrah includes a trip to "these islands" on December 12th-14th. At this writing there are conflicting reports about his itinerary. A "pre-advance" team is already on this side of the Atlantic under experienced White House leadership.

There are two versions of the visit: one has the President spending day one in Dublin, day two in Belfast and day three in London, with a possible sidetrip to another major town or city on the island of Ireland. The second version places the President firmly in the embrace of Tony Blair for the start of his visit, with Northern Ireland and Dublin coming later.

The latter scenario puts the President in Northern Ireland for only seven hours and places the primary emphasis, not on the peace process, but on the special relationship between Bill and Tony, with the President passing the Third Way sceptre on to the Prime Minister who will carry it into the next British general election.

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While no doubt anxious to anoint his favourite son in Downing Street, it would be surprising if the President fails to take and savour his comparative triumph in Northern Ireland. The peace process is suffering its customary aches and pains but the underlying trend remains positive and, compared to other conflicts the President has tried to settle - the Middle East being a notorious example - the North has been a decided success for Clinton.

Legend has it that in the bad old days the same State Department official had responsibility for both Iceland and Ireland, since they were close together alphabetically, and that the Troubles (a euphemism some Americans find amusing) had about the same status among US diplomatic concerns as the level of inflation in Reykjavik.

All that began to change when a new breed of Irish-American that was neither in the pocket of the Provisional IRA nor Iveagh House persuaded Candidate Clinton to take an interest in the issue. His campaign gesture coincided with an increasingly definitive turn away from violence and towards constitutional politics by the republican movement under Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness and a brave welcome for that turn by political risk-takers like John Hume and Albert Reynolds. Senator Ted Kennedy's influence was crucial at this early stage, but Clinton surprised many by going beyond the Kennedy agenda and developing one of his own.

It is at least arguable that none of the good things that are happening today in the North - the relative calm on the streets, the creeping normality, the presence of Catholics and Protestants, unionists, nationalists and republicans in government together - would have been possible without the Clinton initiative in granting a US visa to Gerry Adams in January 1994.

That was a breach of the special relationship which greatly angered London but it showed the doubters in republican ranks that another way was not only possible but likely to meet with success. Clinton was the first president in modern times who had not lived through the second World War and known the bitterness that many Americans felt over Ireland's decision to remain neutral.

More importantly, as the academic Michael Cox has suggested, the end of the Cold War eased tensions and killed off the old Tory bugbear of Ireland becoming "a Cuba on Britain's doorstep" if republicans got a share of power.

William Hazleton of Queen's University Belfast has contributed a useful analysis of Clinton's role entitled "Encouragement from the Sidelines", recently published in the journal Irish Studies in International Affairs. He quotes Niall O'Dowd's claim that "Irish America delivered the President of the United States, and through him the talks chairman, George Mitchell".

The senator from Maine was Clinton's other great contribution to the peace process: a "class act", Mitchell's civility and wisdom helped make the Belfast Agreement possible although his role in the subsequent review which led to the final establishment of the power-sharing Executive was probably more important.

The third and by no means least significant gift Clinton gave the peace process was his stature as President and most powerful leader in the world which even the unionists, lukewarm as they were about the whole business, could not afford to ignore.

Without US encouragement and persuasion it is unlikely the present unionist leadership would have taken the huge political risk of getting into government with those who formerly used the bullet and the bomb in an effort to destroy the Northern state.

Most of the credit, of course, must go to local leaders and officials in Belfast, Dublin and London, while Brussels also made a positive if largely unpublicised contribution.

But whatever his flaws and failings, Bill Clinton can at least claim to have saved lives and helped bring peace to Northern Ireland and, when he finally gets there, many people will be happy to turn out and say: "Good job, and good luck".