Clinton's out of the frying pan and into the Ulster fry with a healthy appetite for peace

President Clinton should tuck into his Ulster fry this morning with particular relish

President Clinton should tuck into his Ulster fry this morning with particular relish. The famous "heart attack on a plate" won't do anything to keep his waistline trim but the President should give himself a treat after a successful week's work in the peace process.

As late as last Monday, the situation looked bleak on the surface, but serious students of the peace process know that the darkest hour is always just before dawn.

IRA statements have a habit of appearing hardline and causing the usual suspects in public life to throw their hands in the air, predicting gloom, doom and disaster.

But the republican movement has developed its own "soft cop, hard cop" routine: one observer with a black Belfast sense of humour said that all those visits to the Castlereagh interrogation centre hadn't gone to waste.

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When the IRA speaks in a loud voice, stridently assuring its members and followers that the struggle has not been abandoned, Sinn Fein frequently follows up with the soft answer that turneth away wrath.

The noises coming from Lon don indicate that Downing Street is pleased as punch with the conciliatory Sinn Fein statement, followed by the appointment of Mr Martin McGuinness as the party's decommissioning body liaison representative.

Sources say Mr Tony Blair's senior staff had a close involvement in the moves leading up to the publication of the Sinn Fein text. Observers believe the phrase "over, done with and gone", echoing words used by the Prime Minister regarding the Northern conflict, has to have been suggested by Downing Street. Or do Sinn Fein spin-doctors memorise the speeches of Tony Blair? Either way, London was delighted by the Adams-Blair echo.

But you have to cover all the bases and, from that point of view, the decision to release the Scots Guards convicted of the murder of a young Belfast man could be interpreted as a smart move. Others will find the timing, just before the anniversary of Peter McBride's death at the hands of Guardsmen Fisher and Wright, not a little insensitive.

The appointment of Mr McGuinness to the decommissioning body was the next act in the well-choreographed peace dance. Ulster Unionist sources, among others, were "flagging" this move on Monday night and soon after yesterday's announcement we had a statement from Mr David Trimble welcoming what he called an "overdue" move.

The key paragraph in the Trimble statement was his pledge that in the Assembly and in the consultations starting next week, he would be "pressing the leadership of Sinn Fein" on the need for "actual" decommissioning, as distinct from gestures on the issue.

This was reminiscent of the tone adopted by the Ulster Unionists in advance of the television debate between Mr Martin McGuinness and UUP security spokesman Mr Ken Maginnis. The "Yew-Yews" came out of their corner fighting, in an obvious move to avert charges of "sell-out", and the same strategy is clearly in place this time.

Meanwhile, speculation continues about a direct Adams-Trimble meeting, possibly including Mr Seamus Mallon, at Stormont on Tuesday.

In announcing the nomination of Mr McGuinness to the disarmament commission, Mr Adams reminded people of Sinn Fein's view that "a lasting peace settlement requires the removal forever of all the guns from the political equation in Ireland".

There has been a lot of uninformed comment on the decommissioning issue but inevitably the appointment of Mr McGuinness is going to give rise to speculation as to what kind of reciprocal gestures could be made. Dismantling of the British government's "Maginot Line" in south Armagh in return for a hand-over of Semtex is an idea that comes to mind.

Old hands and long-time observers recall, however, that provisional republicanism had its origins in the perceived failure of the "Stickies" to ensure nationalist areas of Belfast were not left defenceless against loyalist pogroms in 1969. That was when this generation of Sinn Fein and IRA leaders came on the scene: they are not likely to forget their first lesson in the street realities of life in Northern Ireland.

Mr McGuinness is seen as an icon of that generation of republicans and the fact that he was chosen as Sinn Fein's voice on decommissioning was regarded in some quarters as particularly reassuring. The appointment of, say, Mitchel McLaughlin, would not have had the same effect. But he too had his part on the crowded stage, with an article in the Belfast Telegraph expressing an understanding of the "fears and scepticism" of the unionist community.

Sinn Fein believes it has done a great deal to make it easier for Mr Trimble to meet Mr Adams in a face-to-face bilateral and that to go any further would cause problems among republican supporters. "We can't be seen to be just falling into line every time the Ulster Unionists demand a certain form of words." Observers believe the fact that there isn't the same "buzz" about the second Clinton visit is largely the President's own fault: revelations and equivocation about his private life have not helped but there is also the fact that, last time, both communities used the visit as a means of expressing their desire for peace and there was even talk of the "Clinton majority", made up of peace-loving people from both sides. This time around there is an Assembly and a nascent political system in place, all of which Clinton has played a large part in bringing about. A thinner welcome may be the price of success.