MILLIONS OF Indians will vote today in the first of five rounds of staggered parliamentary polling that is widely expected to yield an unclear verdict, leading to political turmoil in the world’s largest democracy.
No single political party has won a majority in India since 1984. Since then it has been ruled by multi-party coalitions, a state of affairs that newspaper and television opinion polls indicate is almost certain to be repeated when results are declared on May 16th, following the last round of polling three days earlier.
Some 143 million of India’s 714 million eligible voters – more than twice the US population – will cast their ballot today for 124 parliamentary seats spread over 15 states and two federally administered territories.
More than two million armed security personnel and tens of thousands of election commission officials have been deployed for the polling, not just to ensure fair procedures but also to counter attacks by Maoist and other insurgent groups threatening to disrupt the ballot.
While poverty, rising unemployment and the economic downturn dominate the electoral debate, a combination of local problems, national security issues and, above all, centuries-old caste affiliations will determine the complexion of the 545-member parliament.
Despite India’s economic success and its rising global profile over the past decade, its politics remains firmly mired in caste. This system dominates the lives of a majority of Indians, especially in rural areas, by defining their social arrangements and priorities.
Good governance is also an important issue for voters, who range from the poor of urban slums and underdeveloped rural regions to the expanding middle class, which is fast becoming more assertive and seeking more from its elected leaders.
The main contest is between the ruling Congress Party and its allies in the fractured United Progressive Alliance and the Hindu nationalist Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) and its depleted National Democratic Alliance, which was voted out of office in 2004.
The Communists and their regional allies have formulated a “Third Front” and are hoping to play a crucial role after the election, with each party determined to prove its might by extracting maximum benefit in terms of cabinet posts and other positions.
The astute and authoritative Mayawati, who heads the Bahujan Samaj or All People’s Party, which came to power in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, in 2007 is another major player.
Her party contesting almost all seats and has the potential to throw up surprises.
“This is one of the most bitterly contested elections, where all participants are plumbing the depths of political decency,” says Seema Mustafa, editor of the investigative magazine Covert.
Campaigning has been dominated by sharp exchanges between the normally mild-mannered prime minister Manmohan Singh and LK Advani, the BJP’s aspirant for the top job.
Mr Singh has accused Mr Advani of personal cowardice in the face of terrorist attacks on the Indian parliament while Mr Advani has called the prime minister a surrogate who takes orders from Sonia Gandhi, the Congress Party leader.