Civil War ghosts haunt New South

"More than any other state of the Confederacy, South Carolina has seemed to the rushing industrial regions of the United States…

"More than any other state of the Confederacy, South Carolina has seemed to the rushing industrial regions of the United States a land of monuments and memories." That was what the New York Times said about the state in 1930. Some people believe the same could be said today. Some people do not. Who is right - and the Republican nominee for president depends much on this - will be determined today.

As South Carolina's voters take to the polls, they will carry with them yesterday's ghosts, a history of racial strife and pain that still informs politics here. It is a history that both Senator John McCain and Governor George Bush have been mindful of, and have sought to tiptoe around, each with limited success. Imagine elections 40 years from now in Omagh or Enniskillen; memory has power even in the future, for both good or bad, and politicians ignore it at their peril.

You may already know that America's Civil War began at Fort Sumter, South Carolina, in 1861, largely over the issue of slavery. At that time, the cotton crop accounted for 57 per cent of America's exports. It was South Carolina's main crop. Cotton was profitable because the plantations used slave labour. You also know that the Southern Confederacy lost the war to the North and slavery was abolished.

You may not know what happened in South Carolina after that. Southerners made a concerted effort to exclude black citizens from every aspect of civilised life. In 1895, South Carolina's state constitution was rewritten to prevent blacks from voting, a situation that existed until the 1940s. Under the bogus "separate but equal" segregation laws that ruled the land, some 62 per cent of blacks in South Carolina were illiterate in 1948.

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Segregation and racism caused an astounding emigration of blacks from the South, but it is wise to keep in mind that this migration was a modern phenomenon. Some 6.5 million blacks fled the South between 1910 and 1970.

So what does all this have to do with today's primary election? Well, we can start with the controversy over the Confederate flag that flies over the state capital. Proponents argue that it is a symbol of heritage and should be left there. Opponents argue that is a symbol of the state's racist past. Both Mr Bush and Senator McCain have tried to say as little as possible publicly, leaving the matter to South Carolinans to decide.

Neither has mentioned the fact that the flag does not represent much ancient heritage at all. It was hoisted over the state house in 1961 as part of a Southern-wide commemoration of the Civil War, during which black members of various delegations were barred entrance to the Francis Marion hotel in South Carolina. But never mind.

In as quiet a fashion as possible, Mr Bush has sought to appeal to members of the Old South, the fading ruling elite in South Carolina, the people whose grandparents owned slaves, the people who still believe in the old ways. Mr Bush was criticised for accepting an invitation to speak at Bob Jones University, which still prohibits inter-racial dating.

This week, members of Congress and the media were sent an issue of God's World, a 38-page glossy magazine that contained a brutally nasty cover story about Senator McCain written by Bob Jones IV, son of the present head of Bob Jones University. The story, among other things, attacks Mr McCain's wife Cindy.

It took a federal court ruling last week to force the Republican Party to open sufficient polling places in black areas, so that black voters would not be forced to drive 20 miles to vote.

Mr McCain, on the other hand, has taken a risk in South Carolina. He has all but ignored the Old South. Instead, he has hinged his hopes on the fragile New South, a risky but calculated numbers game. Of the state's 3.9 million residents, nearly 144,000 have moved there since 1990. In 1996, 274,000 people voted in the Republican primary.

Mr McCain is counting on those people, the independents, younger people, those without ties to old South Carolina. He is counting on the people who work at the new BMW, Hitachi and Michelin factories. He is appealing to the booming state which is now the home of 500 foreign companies that employ 85,000 people.

"If we're talking about the plant manager for BMW . . . that person is very much a part of the traditional business establishment," pollster Whit Ayres told the New York Times. "But if we're talking about the guy on the factory floor, I think he may be for McCain."

Today's primary may well determine the Republican Party's nominee for president. It may also tell us who really runs the New South.