Choice of commissioner to affect reshuffle

There is intense interest in McCreevy's future, writes Mark Brennock , Chief Political Correspondent

There is intense interest in McCreevy's future, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent

The Minister for Agriculture Mr Walsh declared yesterday that Mr Charlie McCreevy was the most successful finance minister in Europe, one of the most outstanding in the history of the State, and that it would be a terrible mistake to send him off to Brussels.

Mr Walsh probably does think Mr McCreevy is a fine Minister for Finance. But he also wants the European Commission job for himself. With the Taoiseach expected to announce within a week who will be the next Irish European Commissioner, the actions and utterances of everyone at a senior political level are being scrutinised for self-serving content.

Because the choice of Commissioner will not only determine Mr Walsh's own future, it will also determine the scale of the Cabinet reshuffle now expected to take place in late September or October.

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Nobody has gone public to say Mr McCreevy should be moved. In private, however, it is a different matter. At different levels within Fianna Fáil there are those who argue that the party must take drastic action to redefine the party's image in Government.

Moving Mr McCreevy would firstly create a vacancy in the most senior Cabinet post bar Taoiseach, thus allowing for a major change in personnel in the top jobs. Secondly, it could be portrayed as a move to cast off the "right wing" tag that has been attached to it, by shifting the man most associated with the past seven years of economic policy.

Others argue that this would be a terrible mistake. They say McCreevy has been a very successful finance minister, and that despite occasional self-made political difficulties (tax individualisation, taxing credit unions, the proposed O'Flaherty appointment, Punchestown, decentralisation) he has given the Government an ideological identity.

He is seen to believe in things, and voters respect that, they argue. Complaints from some backbenchers that he has led to Fianna Fáil being seen as too right wing, have served to distract from the strong support he retains among his colleagues, they say.

The Taoiseach's view is unknown. It is conceivable that he has secured a powerful economic portfolio from the incoming European Commission President on condition that he send his Minister for Finance to take it. But if Mr McCreevy says no, it is hard to see the Taoiseach moving to force him out.

We should know by next week, probably on the eve of the Taoiseach's departure for the Galway races.

Mr McCreevy's fate is the key to the scope of the Cabinet reshuffle. The common wisdom is that the two oldest Cabinet members, Mr Joe Walsh and Mr Michael Smith, will be retired from this level, although it would be wrong to see it as certain that Mr Ahern will dispense with the experience and political skills of Mr Smith, who if consigned to the back benches, could cause trouble for a Government.

However, those around the Taoiseach who are arguing for dramatic change, would have him dispense with these two and possibly another one or two as well.

Some point to difficulties caused by reforming Ministers who have not delivered on ambitious plans. They say the Minister for Education Mr Dempsey (third-level fees, primary school testing), Minister for the Environment Mr Cullen (e-voting) and Minister for Transport Mr Brennan (Aer Rianta) have all had high profile difficulties and/or failures. But to target these is to send out a signal that Ministers with ambitions to bring about reform are putting themselves in the firing line.

Mr Eamon Ó Cuív has had low visibility as Minister for Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs, but that is at least partly due to the low profile of his portfolio.

The young Minister for Social Welfare, Ms Mary Coughlan, used to be on lists of possible candidates for the chop, but she had a high profile citizenship referendum campaign and has been seen to be active on other issues, and has probably copper-fastened her position. So if Mr McCreevy goes there may be vacancies for three new Ministers. Ms Mary Hanafin, Mr Willie O'Dea and Mr Brian Lenihan are the most often mentioned for these jobs, with Mr Dick Roche's name also surfacing.

However, these are hardly new faces, and indeed have higher profiles than several Cabinet members. For a reshuffle to give the Government a new look, at least one surprise promotion will be required.

Then there are the internal moves. Should Mr McCreevy go, Mr Brian Cowen is widely expected to move to Finance. Mr Micheál Martin is often tipped for the move to Foreign Affairs, but after five years as Minister for Health he still presides over unreformed chaotic services.

The Taoiseach might not favour him with a move to such a high profile post. The Minister for Communications, Mr Dermot Ahern, has always been keen on the Iveagh House posting.

Then there is the Tánaiste, who will be moving from the Department of Enterprise and Employment. Fianna Fáil people have said she wants Foreign Affairs. Her people say she does not. Current speculation is that she would like Mr Séamus Brennan's job at Transport.

And if Mr McCreevy stays, Mr Cowen is expected to seek a move. He is likely to be a leadership contender whenever Mr Ahern's reign ends, and needs to show he can manage a difficult portfolio. Ms Harney's current job might be just the thing.

The only Minister virtually guaranteed to stay put is the Minister for Justice, Mr McDowell.