Analysis: Evidence of the depth of public hostility to military action against Iraq poses problems for Irish foreign policy, writes Patrick Smyth
Evidence from the Irish Times/MRBI poll of the remarkable depth of public hostility to military action against Iraq - even action mandated by the United Nations - will not come as happy news to a Government struggling on two fronts to project the country as a reliable ally and team player in international institutions.
And on both fronts, the UN Security Council and the EU stage, the option of keeping a low profile is simply not there.
The Government faces hard choices on the issue in the weeks ahead, choices that will either antagonise allies like the US, so assiduously courted to play a role in the peace process, or antagonise a public already apprehensive and distrustful over the EU's developing a military dimension.
Ireland retains its membership of the UN Security Council until the end of December and so is extremely likely to face a motion requiring Iraq to submit to new inspections and threatening to sanction "any necessary means" to enforce them.
Irish diplomatic officials remain unwilling to speculate on their likely stances on what they regard now as hypothetical questions in the absence either of resolutions from the US or France. But they admit that Ireland's hard-won place on the Security Council puts it firmly in the limelight and imposes real and difficult responsibilities.
The Irish Times/MRBI poll finds respondents profoundly opposed to unilateral US action against Iraq, with 68 per cent saying Ireland should oppose it, while only 22 per cent would favour backing it. Only 10 per cent have no opinion.
The poll finds significant variations across the country, with the people of Leinster (excluding Dublin), at 76 per cent against to 17 per cent for unilateral action, and women, at 73 per cent against to 14 per cent for, the most determined that Ireland should oppose such unsanctioned US action. The region least concerned about US action is Connacht-Ulster where only one in two think Ireland should oppose it.
A breakdown of the responses to the same question between party supporters shows backers of the Green Party (93 per cent to 2 per cent) most hostile to the US actions while, strangely, Sinn Féin supporters (59 per cent to 32) are those least hostile, perhaps reflecting the latter's traditional links to and empathy with the US.
There are only very small differences in responses by social class. The public is significantly more willing to sanction action by the UN to enforce its authority should Iraq block weapons inspectors - the two questions reflect a nine percentage point difference in attitudes.
The poll clearly reflects a sympathy with the idea that the UN should be a vehicle of global collective security. But a strong majority (59 per cent to 29 per cent) still wants Ireland to oppose any UN authority for action.
The regional variation in response to this second question is similar to the first, but the difference in attitude between men and women is more pronounced, with men dividing only 50 to 41 in favour of Irish opposition to UN action, while women divide 66 to 18 on the same question.
Fianna Fáil and PD supporters are among those most willing to support UN-sanctioned action against Iraq - 34 and 36 per cent respectively - but still minorities. A fifth of Green Party supporters are willing to support UN action.
The poll also reflects a marked contrast in approach to a poll question about Ireland's military posture put to voters last June, prior to the first Nice referendum. Asked if they believed Ireland should participate in the EU's emerging Rapid Reaction Force 49 per cent of those polled said Yes, 32 per cent, No, while 20 per cent had no opinion. That, at the same time as 72 per cent desired to see Irish neutrality upheld.
Unless there has been a sharp change in attitudes since then, the latest poll, it would seem, cannot be interpreted simply as outright pacifism on the part of the Irish public. The public seems to accept the possibility that peace may have to be defended or enforced robustly, preferably through UN-sanctioned operations, but that such an approach is not appropriate in Iraq today.
Clearly both President Bush and the British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, have failed to convince the Irish public that the threat from Saddam Hussein is either sufficiently grave or imminent.