The British government now believes the recent IRA statement on decommissioning given to Gen. de Chastelain would have been sufficient to avert suspension of the political institutions and the resignation of Mr David Trimble had it been delivered earlier.
According to British government sources, the offer would have had to have been made formally and earlier than it was, and without the conditions the IRA attached to it.
This assessment that there was potential for a dramatic breakthrough on the decommissioning question suggests that despite the present hiatus, potential for progress still exists. The British government also shares Irish opposition to a formal "review" following suspension, according to the sources.
The British sources acknowledged that the Government here expressed concerns over the potential constitutional difficulties arising from the British suspension of the institutions, including the North-South bodies.
The British believe that, had the IRA document emerged two weeks before suspension, the Northern Secretary, Mr Peter Mandelson, could have got sufficient further elucidation from the IRA to have made it possible to persuade Mr Trimble to convince his party to accept the offer. This would then have allowed him to withdraw his post-dated resignation letter while the institutions continued to operate.
The sources would not reveal what was in the IRA statement, and confirmed that the IRA had insisted that the detail of the statement not be published in Gen. de Chastelain's report of eight days ago.
The IRA had also said its document would become its formal position only if Mr Trimble withdrew his post-dated resignation letter; the Ulster Unionist Council meeting for the following day was cancelled, and the legislation allowing for the suspension of the institutions was repealed.
The British assessment is that the IRA statement, had it been made formally, would have answered positively the first question posed by Mr Seamus Mallon to the IRA - "Will you decommission?" The answer to the second - "When will you decommission?" - would have been more ambiguous but could have been sold to the Ulster Unionist Council.
The IRA document was given to Irish Government officials at 4.30 a.m. on Friday last week, the day suspension took place, and faxed to Downing Street before 11 a.m. However, the document had no formal status and was, according to British sources, "just a form of words on a piece of paper". Neither government knew whether all or part of its contents would be given to Gen. de Chastelain to enable him to report progress.
It was given to Irish officials on condition that it was confidential to Mr Ahern, Mr Blair, Mr Mandelson and Mr Cowen.
The day before the IRA statement, Mr Mandelson said to Mr Adams that if there was to be an IRA offer the following day, it should be communicated to the general and to Mr Trimble early on Friday to allow maximum time for it to be considered.
However, it was confirmed last night that the IRA went to Gen. de Chastelain with the statement very shortly before Mr Mandelson made the suspension order, and possibly after Mr Adams was told suspension was imminent. The exact timing could not be confirmed.
There is speculation that there was discussion going on within Sinn Fein and the IRA throughout Friday on how much of the statement would be given to the general, and under what conditions. Mr Martin McGuinness of Sinn Fein met Mr Trimble at 2.30 p.m., but did not give him details of the offer.
As the day went on, Mr Mandelson postponed the time for suspension from 10.30 a.m. to 12 noon, then to 2.30 p.m. and finally to 5 p.m.
The British government also considered announcing a post-dated suspension of the institutions, whereby Mr Mandelson would announce a suspension as required by the UUP, but postpone its coming into effect for up to a fortnight. However the British sources say Mr Adams informed them that the IRA offer would not be made if there was any threat of suspension.