ISRAEL: February's poll will be overshadowed by the power play between the prime minister and his foreign minister, writes Peter Hirschberg in Tel Aviv
When the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Ariel Sharon, announced yesterday morning he was calling early elections within 90 days, he would have known that electoral history was not on his side - over the last decade, four prime ministers have precipitated an early poll in Israel and every time they have been unceremoniously dumped by the public.
But, with the Labour Party still deflated after its electoral mauling in early 2000, Mr Sharon's main obstacle as he seeks re-election is unlikely to be the general public.
If the opinion polls are correct, with all consistently forecasting that Likud will form the next government, meaning the leader of the right-wing party will be prime minister after the elections, then Mr Sharon's most formidable challenge comes from within his own party, in the form of former prime minister Mr Benjamin Netanyahu.
Yesterday, just hours after Mr Sharon asked the President, Mr Moshe Katsav, to agree to dissolve parliament and call early elections, to be held in early February, Mr Netanyahu told the press in Jerusalem that he was accepting the prime minister's offer of the foreign ministry - he will be sworn in today - but that he was still determined to challenge the prime minister for the Likud leadership.
Mr Sharon conceded yesterday that his decision to call early elections had been made reluctantly. "Elections are the last thing this country needs right now," he said, in a reference to Israel's ongoing confrontation with the Palestinians, its recession-plagued economy and the possibility of a US attack on Iraq in the coming months.
But he said he had been left with no choice after a far-right party, which opposes any talks with the Palestinians and with whom he had been negotiating in a bid to set up a narrow coalition, presented him with a string of demands he could not countenance. "I wanted the government to serve out its full term," he said, adding that he would "not surrender to political blackmail from any party" nor would he "undermine" Israel's relations with the US.
Mr Sharon tried yesterday to present himself as being above party politics, saying he would "not sacrifice the national judgment and the good of this country for the sake of narrow political interests." But his speech was not short of barbs, the sharpest of which were aimed at Mr Netanyahu.
After his government unravelled, Mr Sharon said he had asked former army chief Mr Shaul Mofaz to become defence minister and Mr Netanyahu to take over at the foreign ministry. Mr Mofaz, he said, had agreed "to rally to the flag without preconditions". The insinuation was clear - Mr Netanyahu had not.
When Mr Sharon made his offer of the foreign ministry to Mr Netanyahu last week, it was seen more as a ploy aimed at embarrassing his Likud rival: if Mr Netanyahu refused, he would be seen as having abandoned a government headed by his party in a time of crisis. Mr Netanyahu countered by saying he would accept the offer on condition a date was set for early elections.
As soon as it was, Mr Netanyahu, who has criticised Mr Sharon for not being hard enough on the Palestinians and has demanded the deportation of Palestinian Authority President, Mr Yasser Arafat, wasted no time in accepting the offer. At a press conference in Jerusalem, he said the prime minister had done "the right thing" by calling early elections and that with Israel facing "the toughest security situation, we know we are on the eve of war in Iraq . . . I am willing to take on the position of foreign minister."
Now, Mr Sharon must put up with Mr Netanyahu in his government and he has supplied his rival with a position that will guarantee daily media exposure. It's not surprising that the prime minister's aides were talking yesterday of a snap Likud primary, preferably within 20 days.
While opinion polls have generally shown Mr Sharon as more popular among the general public, surveys of Likud members have the two men locked in a statistical dead heat. Predicting the outcome is perilous also because backroom deals are often cut between powerful party hacks who can deliver large blocs of votes.
In the coming weeks, the Sharon-Netanyahu brawl will likely grab most of the limelight. The sideshow will be the battle for leadership of the Labour Party.
Ever since Mr Sharon demolished the former prime minister, Mr Ehud Barak, at the polls - following the failed Camp David peace talks and the eruption of the intifada uprising - the centre-left party has been adrift.
As a member for the last 20 months of Mr Sharon's broad-based government, which has reoccupied most of the West Bank in response to suicide attacks, it has also been unable to set itself up as an alternative to the Likud.
Unlike in the Likud, most polls predict a clear winner in the November 19th Labour primary, in the form of dovish Haifa mayor Mr Amram Mitzna, who has argued that Israel must talk to the Palestinians even as it fights terror.
Second in the polls is long-time Labour politician Mr Haim Ramon, who also holds dovish views buts advocates immediate unilateral separation from the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Labour's chairman. Mr Benjamin Ben-Eliezer, who trails badly in the polls, continued his desperate search yesterday for an issue that would revive his flagging campaign.
Rejecting Mr Sharon's accusation that his decision to bolt from the government last week was made on "a political whim", he insisted that the coalition had unravelled "because Sharon has contempt for the poor. How can there be unity while settlements are given priority over the unemployed?"
With early elections being called, the already moribund diplomatic process is likely to be even further paralysed. Mr Sharon, who has always viewed the Oslo accords as a dangerous error, will also need to ensure in the run-up to his party's primary that he is not viewed by Likud members as soft on the Palestinians in light of Mr Netanyahu's hardline stance.
Mr Sharon has repeated his pledge to re-form a national unity government if he wins the election. Even if he defies history and is re-elected, he will discover that the vexing problems confronting him today - the conflict with the Palestinians and the floundering economy - have not gone away.