The Northern Ireland Agreement faces serious hurdles today and tomorrow as two crucial groups meet to consider their attitude to it. In Belfast, the Ulster Unionist leader, Mr David Trimble, must persuade his party's ruling council to endorse the agreement by a convincing majority. His position was boosted last night when Mr Tony Blair, before leaving on a Middle East tour, embarked on a series of interviews to win over rank-and-file unionists. He sought to reassure them on RUC reform, the release of convicted prisoners and the decommissioning of weapons.
Mr John Hunter, a member of the Northern Ireland Forum, said he had never seen such division. "Life-long friends are split, council colleagues are split, even Forum group members are split," he said. "My great fear is that unionism has the potential at this time to literally pull itself apart." The party's deputy leader, Mr John Taylor, said he was confident the council would back the agreement. He said there was "a very healthy debate" taking place within the party because people realised they were facing a historic decision. "It is quite obvious that ordinary unionists on the street are behind this," he said.
Mr Trimble received a blow yesterday when the Orange Order in Co Armagh, which is in his own constituency, rejected the agreement and called on him to reconsider his support for it. The order's 7,000 members in the county were told to study the document and vote according to their conscience.
Mr Trimble was confident of success today. He told ITN's News at Ten last night: "I expect the reactions of the leadership to be endorsed by a substantial majority." Asked if he felt under pressure, Mr Trimble replied: "No. I haven't felt under any pressure the whole way through this process."
The Orange Order's Armagh County Grand Master, Mr Denis Watson, said the document was "hard to stomach", adding: "we cannot countenance prisoners being released in such a short time-scale and also members of Sinn Fein/IRA sitting down and taking decisions relating to the governance of our province."
Sinn Fein's ardfheis in Dublin this weekend may decide on its attitude to the agreement. This was signalled by the party's chairman, Mr Mitchel McLaughlin, at a press conference yesterday. He said that Sinn Fein "may" conclude its deliberations on the document this weekend "if it is the wish of delegates to do so".
The ardchomhairle of Sinn Fein held a long meeting in Dublin yesterday to decide if it should make a recommendation to the ardfheis on the agreement. No announcement was made after the meeting. It was thought more likely that a decision on the agreement would be postponed to a reconvened ardfheis in a fortnight.
The party leader, Mr Gerry Adams, is expected to spell out Sinn Fein's options in his address to delegates at 2 p.m. today. Mr McLaughlin said yesterday that the party was receiving "some hostility" to the agreement, particularly on the constitutional amendments. People were asking whether there was balanced constitutional change.
He also ruled out the option of seeking clarification on the agreement. The decision would have to be taken on the basis of the feedback from the negotiating team.
Party sources indicated that the agreement was finding more favour among members in Northern Ireland. The question of changing Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution had been greeted with some hostility at regional meetings in the Republic in the past week.
The agreement is scheduled for discussion for two hours tomorrow afternoon. Calls to oppose any attempts to remove or adjust Articles 2 and 3 and to prevent Sinn Fein from taking part in "any new British institution such as an Assembly in the Six Counties" are among the motions. The 32 County Sovereignty Committee yesterday accused the Sinn Fein leadership of "a purge" to ensure that no critical voices were heard at the ardfheis.
Last week Sinn Fein expelled nine members in Balbriggan, Co Dublin, for involvement in the committee. Technically, they have been suspended for six months, but sources on both sides agree that in practice the suspension will be permanent.