The Taoiseach and the British Prime Minister are primed to travel to the North on Monday or Tuesday as expectations rise that the leaders of the UUP and Sinn Féin can conclude a deal leading to Assembly elections. Dan Keenan, Northern News Editor, and Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent report
5Sources told The Irish Times yesterday that significant progress towards a deal had been made. However, there remain outstanding questions around the devolution of policing and justice powers and on the equality agenda.
One source said last night that an election could be held early in the last week of November.
Against mounting but guarded expectation of a breakthrough, the Sinn Féin and UUP leaders are continuing intensive negotiations this weekend aimed at striking a deal that could see the winding down of the IRA as a paramilitary force.
In turn Mr David Trimble must commit himself to standing four-square behind the principles of the Belfast Agreement - an assertion that he is expected to make today during his address to the UUP annual conference in Armagh.
All issues have to be agreed for a deal to be concluded and, if these are resolved, then Mr Trimble and Mr Gerry Adams will decide whether or not to proceed.
This decision could be significantly influenced by details of the UUP leader's address today and the republican reaction to it.
The Irish Times has been told Mr Trimble will provide a positive analysis of the Belfast Agreement from a unionist perspective but is not expected to avoid criticism of Sinn Féin.
He will give unionist delegates a detailed assessment of where unionism stands five years after the signing of the agreement and contrast its fortunes now with the pre-Belfast Agreement era.
Mr Trimble is further expected to denounce anti-agreement unionists in general and the Rev Ian Paisley's DUP in particular.
The speech was still being drafted last night, but it is understood Mr Trimble will refer to the last census figures which revealed a growing Catholic/nationalist constituency and criticise republican claims surrounding them.
He may also criticise a Sinn Féin policy paper, Reunification through Planned Integration, due for release by Sinn Féin also in Armagh tomorrow afternoon.
However, there were assurances that there would be no "full-on assault and no DUP-style approach" to the criticism of nationalism.
One reliable unionist source, asked if anything would be said to upset the sensitive talks with Sinn Féin, said bluntly: "There shouldn't be."
Unionist reaction to Mr Trimble's speech, perhaps the most testing and delicate of his leadership, could prove critical to the prospects of a deal and an election.
Sinn Féin is also expected to conclude internal consultations in the next few days before deciding whether to make the hoped-for historic declaration that its paramilitary activities are ending.
Sinn Féin's Mr Martin McGuinness confirmed yesterday that officers of his party were satisfied that an election would be called shortly.
They also agreed on the need for elections in "the best possible atmosphere leading to restoration of the institutions". This is understood to mean an election against the backdrop of a comprehensive deal.
Mr McGuinness said time was pressing. The Taoiseach has pressed for a decision to call Assembly elections by Wednesday.
Sources on all sides say a further protracted negotiation is unlikely, expecting a decision on a deal to be made by the middle of next week.
The polls could open 20 working days after an announcement by the Prime Minister which need not be made to the House of Commons.