ANALYSIS: The Taoiseach was probably seeking to create a climate of opinion appreciative of the strides by the IRA, writes Frank Millar, London Editor
For once Sinn Féin called it wrong. Surprised by Saturday's headlines in the British press predicting imminent IRA moves to end the crisis in the North, they naturally suspected the old enemy at work.
And why wouldn't they? After all, Martin McGuinness - who was allegedly spear-heading secret efforts to have the IRA make a "real, total and permanent" renunciation of violence - said the reports were unfounded, misleading and mischievous.
So, plainly MI5 up to their usual dirty tricks and disinformation then.
Except, of course, that it was nothing of the sort. Nor were the upbeat reports suggesting a fast track back to devolution at Stormont generated by the spin doctors supreme inside No 10. This was a "spin" operation, to be sure. However, it was the handiwork of the Taoiseach himself.
The surprise is that anybody, in the Taoiseach's office or in the London Embassy, might have thought to keep secret Mr Ahern's Friday lunchtime briefing of some of the cream of the British lobby, during a publicised two-day visit to Britain which would conclude with Saturday's Chequers talks with the Prime Minister, Tony Blair.
An even greater surprise, however, was the result: more apparent bad blood between the republicans and the British, and total confusion as to the origin of the stories and, more important, their purpose.
We may safely assume the Taoiseach intended neither. So what was he up to? Putting pressure on Sinn Féin and the IRA? Or, more subtle still, trying to create a climate of opinion in Britain appreciative of the great strides being taken by the IRA and sensitive to the potential dangers which might result from continued unionist nay-saying?
There are grounds for thinking it may, in part at least, have been more of the latter.
Buried in the detail of the varying accounts of the Irish assessment were pretty stark warnings of the possible implications for the peace process itself if the Assembly elections scheduled for next May are postponed as David Trimble might ultimately wish.
"If the elections are not held, hopes invested in the peace process will end, Mr Blair will be warned," wrote the respected Michael White in the Guardian ahead of the Blair-Ahern meeting on Saturday.
Irish sources yesterday suggested this might not have been an exact translation of the Taoiseach's words (admittedly sometimes difficult), and stressed in any event that no threat was intended or implied by this reiteration of Mr Ahern's long-held view about messing with the democratic process out of fear of the potential election result.
And while faintly amused to find British Intelligence catching the blame, the sources confirmed that Mr Ahern's primary purpose had actually been to indicate the bona fides of the Sinn Féin leadership in seeking to bring the wider republican movement to complete its transition to democracy.
Some unionists are naturally suspicious, for they will have noted in the various press accounts confirmation of the Irish Government's view that IRA moves - on decommissioning, training, surveillance, punishment beatings and the like - will stop short of formal "disbandment", at least until such times as the British finally leave the island of Ireland.
Anti-agreement unionists certainly will see here a Dublin propaganda drive to accentuate the positive and mask the fact that less is probably going to be forthcoming from the republican movement than is seemingly demanded following the alleged IRA spying operation and the suspension of the Assembly.
Some experienced British commentators were quick to see that, even if David Trimble understands this - and there are signs that he does - the disclosure at this delicate stage will hardly help him manage an increasingly difficult Ulster Unionist Council.
Likewise they pointed to yesterday's reports of a rising revolt in the republican heartlands as a hindrance to the perceived good efforts and intentions of Martin McGuinness.
However, in one vital area at least Mr Ahern is probably in the clear. Others may think the Taoiseach's approach cack-handed, but we will almost certainly hear no complaint from Downing Street.
Indeed there are those in Whitehall who think it helpful to have Mr Ahern saying things that Mr Blair cannot.
For on the Taoiseach's specific point - that journalists and politicians must not get hung up on the D-for-disbandment word - London is in agreement.