Arafat likely to be given time by council

The 129-member Palestine Central Council is to meet in Gaza today to debate whether to declare a Palestinian state on September 13th. This date marks the end of the period of Palestinian autonomy defined in the Oslo accord and is the deadline set by the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Ehud Barak, for reaching a final settlement. But the deadline approaches without an agreement.

Some council members believe the body will postpone the declaration in line with the wishes of the Palestinian President, Mr Yasser Arafat. As a quid pro quo, he will be instructed to continue to reject Israeli sovereignty over Palestinian majority East Jerusalem and the holy places there, captured by Israel in 1967.

The council is expected to try to reach a formulation which would bolster Mr Arafat's bargaining power in his negotiations with Israel and reassure ordinary Palestinians that the declaration will not be indefinitely delayed.

A poll taken this week showed

52 per cent of respondents want the state to be proclaimed on September 13th, with 41 per cent opposed.

Dr Ghassan Khatib, a Palestinian analyst in Jerusalem, said the council will give Mr Arafat "flexibility" on the actual date. This could be either November 15th, the anniversary of the 1998 declaration of independence issued in Algiers, or January 1st, 2001, to mark the day on which Mr Arafat's Fateh movement was founded.

The council is expected to assure the international community that any unilateral declaration would not mean the end of negotiations or of the security arrangements the Palestine Authority has agreed with Israel.

The council is under pressure from grassroots organisations, particularly Fateh, to establish a constituent assembly and to hold elections. But it is unlikely Mr Arafat will agree to any measures which would curb his powers.

AFP adds: Mr Barak has put the chances for peace with the Palestinians at 50-50, despite unsuccessful US attempts to revive negotiations at the UN summit.

"The Prime Minister estimated that even after talks in New York, the chances for an agreement are still 50-50, and it is too soon to predict the outcome," his office said yesterday.