NORTH KOREA'S previous nuclear test and missile launches had a ring of foot-stamping about them, certainly a modest security threat but one that smacked heavily of a demand that the United States pay it some attention, writes JOHN GLIONNAin Seoul
This time, North Korea’s motives seem more complex, the international bravado blended with the mysteries of the secretive regime’s internal politics. Instead of tweaking the US, the testing of a second nuclear device might have been aimed more at shoring up an ailing Kim Jong-il’s support from the country’s military establishment, many analysts said, perhaps to ensure that power remains within the Kim family in any succession.
Since reportedly suffering a debilitating stroke last year, Kim has been seeking a smooth handover of power – presumably to the youngest of his three sons – and would like to settle the country’s long-running clash with the US before that leadership shift takes place.
“Because of his declining health, Kim now feels he must be on a faster timetable,” said Moon Hong-sik, a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy in Seoul. “The US has ignored him. He feels the pressure, and he’s upping the odds.”
The nuclear test is the latest sign of a more assertive North Korean foreign policy. The North has escalated tensions with South Korea in recent months, abrogating some trade deals and professing to be preparing for war. And Monday’s underground explosion comes weeks after an April rocket launch that North Korea claimed placed a communications satellite into orbit launch, but which most independent observers said was a disguised long-range missile launch.
The satellite did not reach outer space, analysts say, but the US, South Korea and Japan nonetheless sought new UN sanctions.
Monday’s nuclear test was accompanied by short-range missile tests. Analysts speculate that Kim is providing a fireworks show to secure the approval of his military generals.
“Since the appearance of health issues with Kim Jong-il last year, the North Korean military became more influential,” said Cheong Seong-chang, director of Inter-Korean Relations Studies Programme at Sejong Institute near Seoul. “Therefore, I have a sense that the military may have concluded that possession of nuclear weapons is very important.”
Since his apparent stroke, Kim has been giving a larger hand in internal affairs to his brother-in-law, Jang Song Taek, who he has publicly anointed as his second in charge and might play a role in any transfer of power.
But analyst Cheong said North Korea might claim the nuclear test was in some part planned by Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader’s youngest son and frontrunner to assume control of the secretive state.
“The outside world tends to underestimate Kim Jong-un at his young age,” Cheong said. “If Kim Jong-un played a decisive role in this nuclear test, it helps spread internally and externally a perception that he is a man of resolution.” But the opaqueness of the North Korean state makes it difficult for outsiders to pull together a clear picture of the regime’s motives.
For one thing, the regime simply might be continuing to test its nuclear devices and missiles because testing is the only way to improve the reliability of the threat. Indeed, North Korea’s official news agency said that Monday’s nuclear detonation helped resolve technical problems that had prevented the country from improving its nuclear arsenal.
Other analysts say the nuclear test was one more swipe at the US, a reaction to a sense in North Korea that the Obama administration has sidelined security issues on the Korean peninsula as it fights wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and tries to contend with what it sees as an emerging Iranian nuclear threat.
“Last year, a lot of people from Seoul and Washington visited Pyongyang telling Kim and his people that once Obama was in the White House, the US was going to be a totally different entity to deal with,” said Lee Dong-bok, a senior associate in Seoul for the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. “But it’s not working out that way. That’s the reason North Korea is acting in such an erratic manner.”
Andrei Lankov, a political scientist at Kookmin University in Seoul, who specialises in North Korea, says North Korea also might "try to be inventive" and make a publicised attempt to sell nuclear materials to a Third World nation to keep its enemies guessing. – ( LA Times-Washington Post service)