The assumption that Enda Kenny will be no match for Brian Cowen in the Dáil is based on Cowen's brilliant put-downs of the Fine Gael leader in a debate over Bertie Ahern's finances - an edge that might be lost when the focus returns to the daily running of the country
THE IMPENDING DÁIL battle between Brian Cowen and Enda Kenny will be closely monitored by political observers and the chattering classes. Voters will be watching, too, to see how the new taoiseach, and the man who expects to be seeking the job at the next general election, will perform. Both have much to gain and lose, depending on the outcome.
They have things in common. Both were first elected to the Dáil in their 20s in by-elections following the deaths of their respective fathers, who had served as TDs and junior ministers. Kenny was elected in 1975, following the death of Henry Kenny; Cowen was elected in 1984, following the death of Ber Cowen. Both are good social mixers, have a sense of humour and enjoy meeting the grassroots.
Politically, they can be quite different. In one corner is Cowen, a skilled debater who is verbally adroit and has a potentially lethal mix of humour and sarcasm. In the other is Kenny, earnest, astute, amiable, with an impressive track record of electoral success, having rescued his party from political oblivion since taking over the leadership in 2002.
Cowen can be a star Dáil performer, while Kenny's performances can sometimes appear lacklustre. So the conventional wisdom is that the new taoiseach could annihilate the leader of the Opposition. However, any analysis of the dynamics of anticipated Dáil exchanges suggests that the reality could be much more complex. And when it is all over some years from now, Kenny might not be on the ropes.
The Fianna Fáil leader, who has cast himself in the mould of political realist Seán Lemass, would probably be first to privately admit it.
PREDICTIONS THAT COWEN will land a series of killer blows on Kenny are based, in part, on exchanges between the two in the Dáil in February, when the Tánaiste was challenged on Bertie Ahern's appearances at the Mahon tribunal. Cowen told Kenny that he was "neither qualified nor able" to assess Ahern's guilt or otherwise in terms of the evidence the Taoiseach had given about his personal finances.
It was a withering rebuke, which rattled Kenny. Fianna Fáil backbenchers, growing increasingly uneasy about the political fallout from the tribunal, were delighted. Some saw it as a sign of things to come, when Cowen would inevitably take over from Ahern.
More seasoned political observers advised caution in making definitive long-term predictions about the Cowen-Kenny battle for parliamentary supremacy. Cowen's put-down had been delivered in a nakedly political debate. It was about Fine Gael's right to question the integrity of the Fianna Fáil leader and party.
Defending the Soldiers of Destiny, whether in the heat of a Dáil debate or in the euphoria of an ardfheis, has always brought out the political bruiser in Cowen. He can be truly formidable.
However, with Ahern's departure, and the Opposition focus returning to issues such as the economy, health, education and crime, there is unlikely to be the same scope for the devastating put-down.
"When Brian is asked about rising unemployment, school accommodation, or the latest horror story from the health services, he will have to give a credible reply," said a long-serving deputy and Cowen admirer this week. "There will be little scope for the cut-and-thrust of partisan political debate if he is challenged by Kenny on rising unemployment or the misdiagnosis of a cancer victim. Kenny will have the advantage in such circumstances."
The focus on Ahern's finances and on the timing of his retirement dominated the political agenda for months. Under Cowen, it will be back to issues affecting voters' lives.
A sign of things to come emerged last Wednesday when the Dáil met in the aftermath of Cowen's election as Fianna Fáil leader. The party's TDs were on a high, following the smooth transition of power and the political family photograph outside the Dáil.
But the mood was much more sombre in the chamber when Ahern took Opposition leaders' questions, flanked by Cowen. Kenny raised the plight of elderly patients in a hospital in south Dublin. He began by quoting Martin Luther King's observation that our lives begin and end once we become silent about things that matter.
"I took the opportunity to visit a hospital not far from here. I looked out the window and saw the skyline crowded with high-tower cranes and new buildings in close proximity," said Kenny.
"This is a hospital in Leopardstown, with four wards in an old house with added extensions . . . Each of these wards has 21 beds, 13 inches apart, which is less than the width of an A4 page." He went on to say that there were 10 to 15 commodes operating in each ward, "where there is neither respect, dignity nor integrity".
IT WAS STRONG, well-delivered stuff, as Kenny contrasted the misery of the elderly living in cramped conditions with the nearby bustle of the Celtic Tiger.
If Cowen had been taking the question, he would, like Ahern, have had to defend the Government's record on the health services. There would have been no scope for a political put-down.
"Kenny will now focus on the issues affecting people's lives when tackling Cowen," says an Opposition TD. "That will make it a more level playing field. And he must go for the jugular, threatening, for instance, a major confrontation with the Government if it continues to pursue these absurdly long Dáil holidays, as Eamon Gilmore has done."
Strong Dáil performances by a leader can boost party ratings. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, Dick Spring's dominance of the Opposition benches contributed to Labour's outstanding performance in the 1992 general election. Spring eclipsed Alan Dukes and John Bruton on the Fine Gael benches, leading to a credible demand, during the election campaign, that he be a rotating taoiseach in a coalition government.
Spring's Dáil target was Charles Haughey, who was then engulfed in scandal and controversy. Cowen, the first FF leader of the post-Haughey era, comes to the job without baggage, and will be a much more formidable opponent. Spring's strength was his ability to ask short, well-phrased questions. "Kenny must stop this practice of having a long preamble to his questions," says a TD who is a regular attender at Leaders' Questions.
"Informing a taoiseach that you have three questions to ask him is pointless. By the time the third is reached, the first two are forgotten about. It allows your target to be evasive."
Cowen's style will be very different to that of his predecessor. Ahern sometimes wore down the Opposition with a mixture of fractured language, long-winded replies from official briefs, and a contrived amiability. It was more Dev than Lemass.
Like Lemass, Cowen will stare the Opposition in the white of the eye. There will be a minimum of waffle.
"Cowen will know that he will have to sound authentic in the Dáil on policy issues, so there will be times when he keeps his bruiser persona under wraps," says a Government backbencher. "But Kenny will have to be careful that he does not give him any openings for killer punches."
Another long-time Cowen observer remarks: "The taoiseach-designate is not a man to believe his own publicity, and he sees his bout with Kenny going the 15 rounds rather than ending in a knock-out. He will be happy with a points victory at the next general election. He is taking nothing for granted."