SPECULATION is growing that up to 300,000 Rwandan refugees in camps in Tanzania may follow the example of the refugees in eastern Zaire by returning home, writes Paul Cullen from Kigali.
Aid agencies working in the camps along the border between Tanzania and Rwanda say that the refugees are increasingly considering moving back to the country they fled two years ago.
Already, 600,000 Hutu refugees have moved back to Rwanda in the past two weeks, according to the latest US military estimates.
Many of the refugees in Tanzania are reportedly concerned that their land rights may be usurped by those returning from Zaire. They feel a mass return offers greater security. Others, however, are waiting to see how the refugees who have returned are treated upon arrival in their home commune.
Meanwhile, about 20,000 Hutus have fled into Tanzania from fighting in northern Burundi, according to Mr Mike McDonagh of Concern. Aid workers feel the Tutsi dominated regime in Burundi is taking advantage of the concentration of attention on Rwanda and Zaire to intensify its attacks on rebel forces and civilians.
With both the Rwandan government and their allies, the rebel forces controlling eastern Zaire, both refusing to accept the proposed international force on their territory, speculation is growing that the force may be based initially in Uganda.
Canada's Prime Minister, Mr Jean Chretien, said yesterday he favoured a force of 1,000-1,500 personnel, "much smaller" than the original 10,000 strong force his country originally advocated.
In eastern Zaire, international aid workers fanned out across the region yesterday in the first full operational exercise aimed at determining the scale of the effort needed to bring relief to the region.
The nine UNHCR officials and 15 representatives of non governmental organisations (NGOs) were allowed to explore within a 30 km radius of Bukavu, an area well within rebel controlled territory.
They found little evidence of large scale refugee movements, but are pressing to be allowed further west where they believe larger groups may be on the move, a UNHCR spokesman said.
The officials visited all six refugee camps in the Bukavu region, but these were empty.
The Rwandan government yesterday repeated its assertion that hardly any "genuine" refugees remain in eastern Zaire. A spokesman, Mr Alexis Gahizi, told The Irish Times that those across the border were "virtually all" members of the Interahamwe militias or former soldiers responsible for the 1994 genocide.