EU: The European Commission is expected to recommend that Bulgaria and Romania should join the EU on the scheduled entry date of January 1st, 2007.
EU enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn will issue the positive recommendation in a final monitoring report due for publication in the last week of September.
But the report is also expected to recommend that Bulgaria in particular be subject to ongoing scrutiny to ensure it continues to reform its judiciary and tackle corruption. "A serious option is to let the countries join the EU next year, but with safeguards," said a senior commission official, who asked not to be named.
In the case of Bulgaria, the commission is considering imposing the toughest safeguard clauses - sanctions that can be activated after a state joins the EU - implemented on a member state. These could include halting regional aid payments and delaying recognition of court judgements until it is satisfied reform is completed.
EU sources indicated yesterday that it was better to allow both states into the union on the target date of 2007 rather than delay a year and risk setting back the reform process. Under EU accession rules both states would automatically gain entry in 2008.
In May the commission postponed making a final recommendation on Bulgaria and Romania's readiness to join. It cited four areas of concern for Romania, most of which were aimed at improving administrative and IT systems. But it targeted Bulgaria's failure to tackle corruption and organised crime, asking it to provide "clear evidence of investigating and prosecuting organised crime networks and more effective implementation of laws to fight fraud and corruption".
Since 2001, between 100 and 150 people have been killed by contract killers without anyone being sentenced. However, a new Bulgarian chief prosecutor, Boris Velchev, has recently tried to indict politicians accused of corruption and senior figures in the criminal underworld.
Expectations of a positive recommendation for both countries began to emerge yesterday following a meeting between Finnish prime minister Matti Vanhanen and his Romanian counterpart. Mr Vanhanen, who represented the EU presidency, said he was confident Romania had made progress towards entry in 2007.
He also promised to open the Finnish labour market to workers from Bulgaria and Romania once they join the EU. The Republic and the UK are understood to be considering restrictions on workers from both countries.
Bulgarian prime minister Sergey Stanishev said he understood from top EU officials that the commission would recommend on September 26th to let Bulgaria and Romania join next January, a view confirmed by a European Commission source.
"From the discussions I have had, joining in January 2007 now looks to be a realistic goal," Mr Stanishev told reporters after talks with commission president José Manuel Barroso and Mr Rehn. Mr Barroso declined to speculate on the date, however, demanding more evidence of action against corruption and crime.