Unite Nigeria? Good luck with that

PROFILE: GOODLUCK JONATHAN:Nigeria's new president offers hope to disillusioned young people, but he needs all the luck he can get to govern a country riven by unemployment and religious conflict

IT MIGHT HAVE been Nigeria’s cleanest poll to date. But just as Goodluck Jonathan was declared the winner of last weekend’s presidential election, he got an early lesson in the challenges he faces uniting Africa’s most populous country.

As Jonathan headed towards a 59 per cent share of the vote, unrest spread throughout the country’s northern states, where a predominantly Muslim population had given their backing to Gen Muhammadu Buhari, a former military ruler and one of their own. Churches and Mosques were burnt and, according to the Red Cross, at least 200 people were killed. More than 40,000 people are now displaced from their homes.

Nigeria, which at last seemed to be on the cusp of achieving its enormous potential, was descending into yet another predictable spiral of religious-motivated violence.

But while the challenges Jonathan, a Christian from the south, faces in bridging the religious divide should not be underestimated, they should not be exaggerated either. Religion is a divisive, but not a dividing factor in Nigerian politics. Jonathan’s biggest challenge in the coming months will not be reaching out to Muslims, but satisfying the growing aspirations of ordinary Nigerians, especially the young and unemployed.

Born into a humble family of canoe makers in the oil-rich Niger Delta, the fedora-wearing zoologist was a virtual unknown until he was elevated to the position of governor in Bayelsa state in 2005. A lecturer and environmental protection officer, he rose through the ranks of the state government to vice-president, until his boss was impeached on corruption charges.

Hand-picked by the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to serve as vice-president to Umaru Yar’Adua in 2007, he assumed the position of president following Yar’Adua’s incapacitation and eventual death last year. Regarded until then as an unambitious administrator, a safe pair of hands to act as the president’s number two, he surprised many with the pace at which he began instigating reforms.

One of his first decisions was to appoint Attahiru Jega as the head of the country’s electoral commission. A respected academic and political scientist, he replaced Maurice Iwu, a colourful but largely reviled character who presided over the chaotic and shambolic 2007 election, considered by many to be the most fraudulent in the country’s history.

As a marker of intent, it was a significant one, and the commendations received by the electoral commission this week for the orderly way in which the election was conducted was proof that Jonathan offered more than empty promises when it came to giving Nigerians a real choice at the polls.

However, his candidacy in last week’s election was not overwhelmingly welcomed, and offers a sharp insight into the complicated way in which Nigeria has been governed since the return to civilian rule in 1999.

As a southerner from the Niger delta, his candidacy represented a break from an unwritten zoning agreement in the PDP, whereby the presidency is switched every two terms between a northern and southern candidate. Yar’Adua was the only Muslim to rule Nigeria since 1999, which means, “If Jonathan stands again in 2015 – and his supporters will pressure him to do so – that would imply 18 out of 20 years under a southern president,” says Ashley Elliott, Africa Analyst with Control Risks, a London-based risk consultancy.

That explains in part the unrest which followed the voting in northern Nigeria this week. However, significant numbers of voters in northern states that are predominantly, if not overwhelmingly, Muslim still voted for Jonathan. Even in Gen Buhari’s home state of Katsina, more than a quarter of the voters supported Jonathan.

The fact is that there are other, arguably more important, fault lines that need to be addressed by the new president in the months and years ahead. Nigeria’s economy is driven by hydrocarbons such as oil and gas, which are concentrated in the south of the country. Meanwhile, industries such as textiles, which are traditionally located in the north, are in rapid decline.

“This, combined with the youth bulge, creates a pool of desperate young men who can easily be exploited by ruthless politicians,” says J Peter Pham, an election observer during both the 2007 election and this year’s election.

Young people (62 per cent of the country’s population is aged under 24) turned out in huge numbers to vote. And they want jobs and opportunities. Jonathan seems acutely aware of this, relentlessly courting the youth vote during his campaign by employing Facebook and other social media to drive his message home. He even recruited staff from Barack Obama’s successful presidential campaign in the US. But, in giving young people hope, he also risks alienating them if he can’t face down the privileged few who control much of Nigeria.

“Even where they are credibly orchestrated, elections confuse the hopes and allegiances of millions of people with the decisions of tiny elites,” says Elliott. “That is particularly true in Nigeria where the PDP is less an ideological programme and more a club for political ‘godfathers’ to accommodate each other.”

Jonathan now has a mandate. The coming month will tell whether he can fulfil it.

Curriculum vitae

Who is he?Goodluck Jonathan.

Why is he in the news?The former zoologist has just been elected president of Nigeria.

Most appealing characteristic:He's seen as a reformer who plays fair, and will try to mend the country's religious divide.

Least appealing characteristic:He's a little too eager to use social media to nab young voters.

Most likely to say: Okay, sign me up for Twitter, LinkedIn and MySpace. And update my Facebook profile.

Least likely to say:'Can I have my old job back, please?'