UK election outlook fluid as 30% still undecided

THOSE of us who go National Hunt racing will be familiar with the experience. You stand at the side of the track and wonder what it feels like to be going out on an indifferent jumper.

I suppose some Irish people who take an interest in politics generally, or even in English politics in particular, might say: `I wonder what it is like starting the English election campaign as a Tory candidate defending a marginal constituency.'

Well, you may be surprised, but we are all in remarkably good spirits. We know that the polls and some papers are at present against us. But no one can detect the slightest evidence of a potential landslide against us.

Of course, no one active in politics remembers 1945 in great detail. Yet most of us do remember 1979. Then there was a clear change of mood in the country. Labour's old-fashioned corporatism was rejected and we, the Tories, had won the Battle of Ideas. Today, if there has been a Battle of Ideas, there has been no clear winner.

So we see it as a fluid situation. Thirty per cent of the electorate have yet to decide. The polls may be the best guide, but they are not perfect. In 1992 the result was a triumph for the Tories and a disaster for the pollsters.

Remember also that the mood of the backbenchers may be different from that of the London media establishment. The media establishment portrays the general election as though it were a great fixed battle, between two vast armies controlled by a commanding general on each side, as at Waterloo.

We know that it is, in fact, 659 local skirmishes in which the circumstances of each constituency may be different and the effect of local leadership, for better or worse, may be crucial.

THERE are obvious regional variations.

For instance, in the West Country the Liberals have been very powerful. It is said that they have abandoned a national role now and are concentrating on targeting particular seats.

In general the Liberals seem to be less successful than they have been in the last 10 years.

In the West Midlands immigration has for a long time been a vital issue; in 1970 it was said by Enoch Powell to have made the difference nationally between victory and defeat.

There are significant differences between Labour and Conservatives over immigration control and these differences may now be much to the advantage of the Tories.

In Scotland, too, it is said that the fortunes of the Tories are on the increase. The Labour Party is the establishment party, long in control.

It too has had its sleaze problems, this time in Glasgow. The few Tory seats may be held and there are even high hopes of some gains.

Most of all we think that during the long campaign the shine will come off Mr Blair. The assumption of being prime minister in waiting will have grave disadvantages.

He will have to explain the effect of his policies and he will have to explain how he is likely to get them through his party and parliament. Never forget, ours is a parliamentary and not a presidential system.

In London it is easy to see the battle as between Mr Blair and Mr Major. We in the constituencies know the old Labour Party.

We doubt if it can be kept silent for the whole election campaign. We are certain that it cannot be kept silent for a whole parliament.

If you are a genuine Labour supporter and you have been knocking on doors in Wolverhampton for 18 or more years, you have a vision of the sort of society you are struggling for. You are not going to enjoy any power, but by God you have not struggled all those years just to have Tory policies and yuppie New Labour men.

Most of all, we doubt whether Mr Blair can maintain his quite extraordinary control of the Labour Party throughout the country.

Look, for instance, at the way the Tory turncoat, Alan Howard, has been found a constituency in Wales. It seems that he was imposed by the Labour high command on a reluctant local Labour party.

The old power in the old local Labour parties was wielded by the unions. The day of the unions is gone. However, new forces of local influence must emerge, or local enthusiasm and local influence will diminish.

So we look forward to testing the views of Labour on public expenditure, on Europe and on education: there is, still, all to play for.