Kohl in the twilight zone

WHEN Chancellor Helmut Kohl came to Berlin last week to turn the sod for a chancellery building near the Reichstag, he described the new building as an expression of national self confidence. Yet, as new divisions open up within his centre right coalition almost daily, Dr Kohl has been displaying little of his own formidable self confidence in recent weeks.

Amid public rows with some of his oldest allies, the Chancellor has appeared increasingly at sea as he attempts to find a solution to Germany's serious economic problems. The scale of these problems was dramatically highlighted on Thursday when the number of Germans out of work reached a post war record of 4.66 million, or 12 per cent of the workforce.

Heckled during a lacklustre speech in the Bundestag a week ago, Dr Kohl looked suddenly weak and tired as he snapped back, demanding silence and respect.

"Spring is on its way, and so is the post Kohl era. Things are getting interesting in this republic," crowed a Greens leader last week.

Most observers in Bonn agree that Germany's political mood has changed abruptly since the new year, and many are now describing it as one of Kanzlerddmmerung, the twilight of a chancellor.

Dr Kohl has survived similar scares to become his country's longest serving post war chancellor and he is rumoured to cherish a collection of magazine covers prematurely predicting his political doom. What makes the latest rumbles more notable is the fact that members of his own Christian Democratic Union (CDU) are now openly speculating about life after Kohl.

Mr Christian Wulff, the 37 year old leader of the Christian Democrats in Lower Saxony, shocked his seniors in Bonn last month by accusing the Finance Minister, Mr Theo Waigel, of incompetence. Dr Kohl rounded on him angrily, but Mr Wulff ignored the rebuke and later repeated she insult.

Bonn insiders are now identifying Mr Wulff as the leader of a growing band of "young Turks" in the CDU who are positioning themselves for a leadership battle after Dr Kohl departs. They calculate that, given that Dr Kohl's popularity among Germans is personal rather than on account of his policies, they have nothing to lose by carving out a new policy image for themselves more in keeping with public opinion.

Mr Wulff's revolt may have been prompted by remarks made to the magazine Stern last month by Dr Kohl's most loyal lieutenant, the CDU parliamentary leader, Dr Wolfgang Schauble. Long regarded as Dr Kohl's heir apparent, Dr Schauble confirmed publicly for the first time that he harboured an ambition to be chancellor.

"A cripple for chancellor?" read the headline, a reference to the fact that Dr Schauble has been confined to a wheelchair since he was paralysed by a would be assassin's bullet six years ago. Sources at the magazine claim that the headline was suggested by Dr Schauble to test public opinion on his fitness for office.

According to one theory, Dr Kohl will consider a transfer of power to Dr Schauble before next year's federal elections unless he feels certain of a fifth successive victory.

Dr Schauble, who has played a key role in developing the party's policy on Europe, would almost certainly maintain Dr Kohl's dynamic drive towards European integration. He has one of the sharpest intellects within his party and is a master deal maker but lacks the Chancellor's basic instinct in judging the mood of the country.

Dr Kohl's coalition has a majority of just seven seats, and recent rows between the CDU and the Liberal Free Democrats (FDP) over economic policy have revived speculation about a grand coalition of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats. The wily Dr Schauble might be the perfect figure to negotiate and lead such a government.

THE outcome of next year's election could also prove crucial for Germany's neighbours. The man most observers expect to stand for the Social Democrats is the popular prime minister of Lower Saxony, Mr Gerhard Schroder. Mistrusted as an opportunist by many within his party, Mr Schroeder has signalled his willingness to campaign on an antieuro platform if it is likely to win votes.

At 52, Mr Schroder grew up in post war, prosperous Germany and shares none of the terrible memories of war that helped shape Dr Kohl's commitment to the European idea. Few analysts believe that any Christian Democrat apart from Dr Kohl could defeat Mr Schroder in a head to head contest.

What looks certain is that, now that the succession to Dr Kohl has become an open subject, more of his colleagues will start to position themselves for the race.