High turnout throws regime into disarray

The myth of invincibility around Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic was broken yesterday after his top officials admitted political failings in the wake of Sunday's crucial elections.

The Milosevic regime and the opposition both claimed victory in the presidential poll, but three leading regime figures yesterday admitted opposition challenger Dr Vojislav Kostunica was a very close second and they conceded other major losses.

Analysts saw it as a bid to win some time and consolidate before a second-round fight between Milosevic and Kostunica. No published opinion poll has shown Milosevic winning such a head-to-head clash.

But few believe the Yugoslav President can pull himself out of this mess. The electoral loss he suffered at the weekend was just too great, they say. Ever since the NATO bombing, many people in his country have viewed him as an albatross. Now these elections have reinforced that sense. He is seen as a loser.

The final presidential poll results are not yet reported - and what has emerged is contested. According to the Democratic Opposition of Serbia, Kostunica has 55 per cent to Milosevic's 34 per cent.

According to the regime, Milosevic had 45 per cent and Kostunica 40 per cent with only part of the vote counted. Spokesmen claimed success in the federal elections, but accepted defeat in the local poll.

But the presidential race is the dominating issue and the opposition claims of outright success have convinced many. "This is the end," said Mr Bratislav Grubacic, editor of the newsheet VIP. "The edifice is crumbling."

Regime spokesmen sought to claim Milosevic could win. It was a remarkable turnabout for the regime, which had shown evident signs of confusion and disarray in the face of a massive 75 per cent turnout. Local election results also showed a dramatic backlash against Milosevic in many cities once viewed as bastions of the regime.

While final results will not be available from the election authority - the Federal Election Commission - until today, the socialists have in the past announced their poll results during the course of the night after the poll.

But on Sunday night their confusion and disarray were obvious. The party postponed several press conferences. At one point, state television RTS was reported to be carrying a teletext report that Kostunica was in the lead - then it disappeared.

Even yesterday's state-controlled newspaper Politika carried a small non-committal article under the headline: "Massive turnout for democratic elections.". This ended with a paragraph claiming a Milosevic lead - a remarkably low-key showing for a paper that is frequently full of overt propaganda.

Then, yesterday afternoon, top officials from the regime called a remarkable press conference. Three of them were present: Socialist Party General Secretary Gorica Gajevic, President of the Jugoslav Left Party Ljubisa Ristic and Federal Prime Minister Momir Bulatovic, of Montenegro's Socialist People's Party (SNP).

They tried to put an optimistic gloss on the situation. They praised the poll as democratic and fair. "We are entering into a period of mature democracy where peoples' will must be respected without any question," said Ristic. He said: "This is a victory for our country. For Yugoslavia." And he conceded that in the presidential race there might need to be a second round.

Rade Veljanoviski, a newspaper columnist, says: "The regime has figured out that it has lost elections. Their reaction is to try to create some room for manoeuvre.

"The rhetoric of Ljubisa Ristic is encouraging. Of course they can change their rhetoric even tomorrow, but I hope this will not happen. They are trying to run in the second round.

"But the second round may be even more difficult for them. At the moment, they don't have any solution and are trying to buy some time. They are seeking to decrease tension, but still there is some arrogance in their statements," he said.

Grubacic agrees that the moves indicate a bid to buy time: "He wants two weeks to try to consolidate his party," he says. But Grubacic doubts it will be enough. He says Milosevic has - even in the eyes of his own supporters - now lost.

In the past, demonstrations upholding results that went against Milsoevic have been put down by violent police action. Hundreds of thousands demonstrated in towns and cities across the country in the winter of 1996-97 and were met with strong police resistance. But this time, Grubacic does not believe this can be done.

Kostunica is genuinely the most popular choice, says Grubacic. He has a mandate. And Milosevic no longer has his. The emperor has lost his clothes.

Grubacic says there are some hardliners in the regime who remain potentially dangerous, but says: "They are dangerous only if they can use the police or army. I don't know if the police will back Milosevic. They would have to fight their own people for someone who has lost," he says.

Many believed Milosevic was backed into a corner by the massive size of the turnout. "Votes can be rigged when there is a slim difference between two groups, but when the difference is this big there is no way anyone can falsify the results," said Vladan Batic of the opposition alliance.

Concern remains about manipulation in the poll. One opposition member of the State Election Commission, Sinisa Nikolic, complained the vote count agency had not met since late on Sunday and had not resumed work by Monday afternoon.

"We are sitting here and asking what to do. We have no access to where computer results are being calculated," he said. But by law the results must be announced by Thursday and there is a growing sense in Belgrade that it is too late for ballot-rigging and that fraudulent results of any magnitude simply will not have credibility among people who know they and their neighbours voted against Milosevic.

After more than 10 years, it really seems that time and options are running out for the Yugoslav President.