It's too early to run the headline, Northern Ireland on the Brink. But it is already evident in Portadown and elsewhere in the North this week that if wiser heads don't assert control quickly, it could soon be time to dust down and print that apocalyptic warning.

Throughout the North a familiar mood is being rekindled: a growing dread in the pit of the stomach. Yesterday evening some businesses were closing early in Belfast and Portadown in anticipation of trouble. People were beginning to stockpile household supplies. The lucky ones were packing their bags for Mayo or Majorca.

Some theologians will tell you that a key difference between the main religious groupings in Northern Ireland is that Protestants, unlike rather ambivalent Catholics, fully subscribe to the principle of individual responsibility for individual actions, and also for their consequences. Precious little evidence of that precept up on Drumcree hill. On Sunday the Portadown district master Harold Gracey urged "hundreds of thousands" of loyalists to rally in support of Drumcree Orangemen. "Off your bellies," was his battle cry. And that surely is what they have been doing. Trouble at Drumcree since Sunday night, and fears of more to come. Trouble too elsewhere in loyalist areas of Portadown.

And in keeping with Mr Gracey's urgings the protests and disturbances are radiating from Portadown to Belfast, Armagh, Lisburn, and into some country areas. "It will get worse before it gets better," is the security appraisal.

Mr Gracey and Portadown Orange Order press officer David Jones want these protests to be peaceful - but, Mr Jones will quickly add, if there is violence that is the fault of the British government and the Parades Commission who banned Orangemen from the Garvaghy Road.

The Orangemen portray this as their struggle, where they are fighting for civil and religious liberties for Protestants. But judging by events on the hill they are in grave danger of having this struggle taken away from them. As the RUC chief constable, Sir Ronnie Flanagan, said last week there are loyalists who want to hijack this protest for their own ends.

On Monday night former UDA/UFF prisoner and leading Shankill loyalist Johnny Adair marched into Drumcree with 50 of his comrades wearing Ulster Freedom Fighters T-shirts. Mr Adair was also accompanied by an Alsatian dog sporting similarly-emblazoned apparel. Later, he moved back to the loyalist Corcrain estate where he cheered masked Loyalist Volunteer Force members firing a volley of shots to the anthem of No Surrender. Everybody was very cheerful. It was both sinister and surrealistic.

Meanwhile, back at Drumcree Mr Jones addressed those of the 500 or so loyalists present who would listen. He urged loyalists in the housing estates and communities around Northern Ireland to demonstrate in support of the Portadown brethren.

"We should not allow ourselves to be defeated," he exhorted. As he spoke a band played and several youths were down in the field stoning the police officers holding the line between the Orange and Green sides of the bridge at Drumcree.

Several of those present were fired on drink and sectarianism. And this was only Monday night, four days before Friday when so-minded loyalists get three weeks' summer holiday pay and turn their sights to Drumcree. There was no sign of any Orange marshalling of the protest at Drumcree. There was no attempt to restrain the drunken hooligan element present.

The Portadown district has no apparent concerns about the presence of Mr Adair, who said he would be back, possibly tonight or later in the weekend. "We welcome the support of any individual who is prepared to come out on the hill and join our protest," said Mr Jones. "We can have no responsibility for anything that anyone else does that isn't part of our particular protest," he added. One conjured a picture of the washing of hands.

Ordinary Orangemen must be pretty torn about all this. They hold firm views about parading down Garvaghy Road but most are conservative rather than militant and would surely be appalled by the idea of paramilitaries swaggering about Drumcree on their behalf. Each day, and particularly each night, the tensions and the extent of the disturbances increase. The Shankill UDA/Portadown LVF axis must be worrying the RUC and British army. Police and army sources, however, insist they can contain whatever is thrown at them at Drumcree.

So far they have not erected the steel barricades and razor-wire fencing but if the numbers swell that can and will happen quickly. But if this Drumcree goes the way of 1995, 1996, 1997, and 1998, civil disorder could erupt on a wide-scale. The security sources can only deal with so much disruption. At the moment the mood doesn't seem quite up to that of the worst Drumcrees, in 1995, 1996, and 1997, but that could quickly change.

While the Shankill UDA and Portadown LVF are upping the ante at least the overall UDA leadership and the Ulster Volunteer Force appear more interested in maintaining tighter order. It was interesting that Gary McMichael of the Ulster Democratic Party, political wing of the UDA, urged loyalists not to become embroiled at Drumcree.

Equally, Mr David Ervine of the Progressive Unionist Party, political wing of the UVF, indicated that neither was the UVF anxious to make this a grand test for loyalism.

"The leadership of the Orange Order should be ashamed of itself. If you bring a crowd on to the street you should be aware of the potential for violence . . . Brain power not brawn is the way forward in this society," said the PUP quotesmith. There is a lot here for the Orange Order to mull over. It can't perpetually blame others for any violence arising from its stand. The danger is that the order will totally lose control of events - and at Drumcree these nights this is the sense one experiences.

Orangemen generally have reacted negatively to the Parades Commission's report. But there is an argument for Orangemen with tactical nous taking a fresh and studied appraisal of the contents of its ruling on Drumcree, particularly the five-point plan setting out how Orange feet could march down Garvaghy Road in three to eight months' time.

Chiefly, this requires an end to the Drumcree protest and dialogue with the Garvaghy residents under the auspices of South African mediator Brian Currin. Mr Jones was dismissive of the plan but Mr George Patton, secretary of the Grand Lodge, at least said the order would study the proposals in detail before responding.

The Orangemen's argument that they won't speak to the Garvaghy group because it is led by former IRA prisoner Breandan Mac Cionnaith has for years been blown apart. Senior Orangemen were happy to converse with murdered LVF leader Billy Wright and there were no Orange protests on Monday night about Mr Adair's presence on the hill.

Mr Mac Cionnaith refuses to be specific about whether in the event of direct dialogue the Garvaghy residents could countenance a limited Orange march in three to eight months' time. However, he concedes that the current trouble and tensions year after year are intolerable and that it would be in everybody's interests to find a third way.

What third way means would be up to the Portadown district and the Garvaghy Coalition with the assistance of Mr Currin to establish. At the very least, acceptance of the commission's proposals would place the Portadown brethren on the moral high ground, and test the bona fides of the Garvaghy group.

The problem for civil society in Northern Ireland is that just now the only high ground Orangemen and their loyalist allies want is the hill at Drumcree.