And now, for a look at the future

Is it an art or a science? Is it about flair or good sense, keen observation, or is it all guesswork and serendipity? Whatever the answer, the forecasting of trends in the fashion industry is big business. Nelly Rodi, one of the world's leading forecasting houses is based in Paris, but the US division is headed by a Cork woman, Anne Haly. As US agent for the company, she advises some of most prestigious US companies on fashion trends, and how sociological changes influences them.

"Perhaps the most important element of what we do is studying and interpreting sociological changes and anticipating people's needs in the future," says Haly, who studied art and design in Cork and Dublin and worked as a dress and interior designer until 18 months ago. "Many of the 30 employees at Nelly Rodi in Paris are sociologists who study the changes in lifestyle in the past, how people see themselves and their occupations changing, and then visualise how these will lead to changes in the future."

The idea is to inspire companies and sometimes lift them out of a rut. A designer for nearly 30 years, Haly understands how easy it is to stultify.

"The fashion business is extraordinarily challenging. Even if you don't realise you're in a rut, young designers come along, nipping at your heels, and you find yourself out of a job. What can also happen is that companies just close down, as happened to me; I found myself out on the street when a well-established company (Shroeder knitwear company) suddenly closed its doors." However, her experience has served her well - Nelly Rodi's services include designing as well as recommendations for companies who need help in finding a new direction and mounting exhibitions and conferences, trade shows. Some 50 per cent of Haly's work is in marketing trend books which forecast the future of colour palettes, fabrics, yarn, knitwear, prints, cosmetics, active sportswear, lingerie and home furnishings.

Companies including Ralph Lauren, Estee Lauder, L'Oreal, Victoria's Secrets, Liz Clairborne, J. Crewe, Tommy Hilfiger and Nordstroms use these services or buy the trend books, which cost around $3,000 on subscription.

Haly points out that clothing trends are often reflected in make-up and home furnishings - over the coming months, the huge Gap clothing company will open 800 home furnishing stores. "They have put a creative team in position and will serve the bed, bath and lingerie market. They have bought our home book." Haly sees a strong trend towards increased spending on these luxuries. "People are investing in, and will spend more on, lifestyle. Home is about lifestyle, career is lifestyle. One of the most interesting things happening is fragrance, which is so much a part of the environment. We'll see even more scented candles."

Another growth area in the US is the young executive, just out of college, who needs a wardrobe to bridge the gap between the ultra-casual college garb of the student to smart individual businessperson. "This is a huge growing market for a generation who are now making a lot of money but who grew up in blue jeans and sweaters . . . We are showing companies how to bridge the gap between sloppy and smart.

"In the US people went overboard on casual and now don't realise what is appropriate. Marketing in spring and summer 2001 is targeting these kids; Tommy Hilfiger has just opened a shop for this market. Companies in the US are smart like that; when they see something surfacing, they get on to it immediately. They have people who observe, if they don't, they lose a piece of a very lucrative market."

According to Nelly Rodi (who speaks on a CD-ROM accompanying the trend books) we can look forward to "ethereal moods" for spring/summer 2001. Greys of many hues abound, some "bronzed by moonbeams" and she also incites us to "learn to be lazy". Rodi herself was decorated by Jacques Chirac with the Croix de Chevalier of the Legion of Honour for her work.

I love this job," says Anne Haly. "I always loved travelling in my earlier designer years, meeting craftspeople and enjoying textures and colour. Now I am involved in something very exciting and energetic which allows me a wonderful lifestyle in New York." She starts the day in her Manhattan East Side apartment at 6.37 am. "I wake up at the same time every day; I don't need an alarm clock. Tomorrow I will meet Levi Strauss's creative team who are coming in from California. I usually spend an hour or so with them and then move on to other clients during the morning. I try not to see more than four each morning, then I take a break for lunch with a cup of tea in my office in the flat and get to work on the office side of the business."

For Haly, it's a less stressful life than when she was a designer producing five collections a year. "I would have to make millions of dollars for companies and it would drain me."

Looking at the Irish market from a distance, she sees chain stores in need of services like hers, especially in home furnishings. "New generations come along and should not be underestimated. I can see huge room for improvement. The Irish have an exalted opinion of themselves, but when you live in a country like America, especially New York, you live in a transcultural and transnational ambience, and your opinion does not count for much. It's a great leveller; it sharpens you up . . . Companies in the US are awake and ready to learn. Competition is their energy, as it is mine."