US midterm polls show a blue surge. Can we trust them?
Democrats are leading in all key states that will decide senate control, according to the latest polls.
However, surveys have underestimated Trump and Republican support before.
There’s precedent in the Trump era for polls to overestimate Democrats, and it’s reasonable to wonder whether the polls might be overestimating Democratic strength yet again. Statistically, Republicans more likely not to respond to polls, which introduces the ever-present risk of a polling misfire.
The political analyst Nate Cohn says the latest New York Times/Siena polls have been weighted to take account of this.
In addition, he argues Democrats lead by enough that they could win the Senate even if the polls underestimate Republicans by as much as they did in 2016 or 2020.
Most voters ‘angry’ or ‘dissatisfied’ with direction of US
Voters are in the mood for change, according to the AP Voter Poll, which found that roughly three-quarters of voters say they feel “angry” or “dissatisfied” with the way things are going in the country today.
The poll finds most appear to blame the Trump administration for high costs. About six in 10 say higher-than-usual prices are “more because of Trump’s policies” rather than “more because of factors outside Trump’s control.”
Additionally, about 70 per cent of voters want the US Congress to provide more checks and balances on the presidency.
The AP poll suggests most are deeply unhappy with Trump, with roughly six in 10 saying they disapprove of how he’s handling the presidency.
About four in 10 say the economy is the most important issue facing the country, while three in 10 say the most important issue is democracy, according to the poll, well above the number who said the same about crime, health care and immigration.
How will the TV networks project results?
Most TV networks and web outlets rely on two providers for vote counts: the Associated Press (AP) or election data firm Decision Desk HQ.
Some news outlets like Fox News and CBS News make their own projections based on the AP vote count, exit polls, early-vote totals and their own statistical modeling.
The first projections will start soon after polls begin to close, first with Indiana and Kentucky at 11pm Irish time.
Then, polls close in Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia at midnight Irish time.
When making calls, the AP says it uses vote totals and estimates how many votes remain uncounted based on past voting patterns and early-vote data.
It calls a race only when the trailing candidate cannot catch up.
Decision Desk HQ collects vote counts from official state sources. The firm says it uses statistical analysis, modeling and expert review to project election winners.
First polls close in Indiana and Kentucky
The first polls in the 2026 US midterms have closed now in Indiana and Kentucky.
Kentucky’s 6th district, an open seat rated by many as a toss-up, is being treated by analysts as an early test of whether a large Democratic wave is building.
At midnight, polls in Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina and most of Florida will close. Virginia’s 2nd district will be the first genuine swing seat to report.
My colleague Hugh Linehan has provided this guide on when to expect the key calls.
Was Trump’s election day announcement on cutting aid to Israel a sign of desperation?
Earlier on Tuesday, US president Trump made a surprise election day announcement on US aid to Israel, a topic that has been raised in some midterm campaigns.
He said he had made a deal with Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu that Washington would stop $4 billion in funding to Israel after the end of this year, though it would still sell Israel weapons.
The announcement comes as US public support for Israel has fallen, particularly among Democrats, since Israel’s harsh response in Gaza to a deadly Hamas-led cross-border attack in October 2023.
Trump did not say why he chose to announce the deal on Tuesday, but a number of candidates critical of Israel won Democratic primaries over the past year, and even moderate candidates have been increasingly willing to challenge longtime US support.
In a key battleground race, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed is seeking to represent Michigan in the US senate. El-Sayed, who would become the first Muslim to serve as a US senator, has opposed unconditional military aid to Israel.
What does turnout typically look like in US midterm elections?
Turnout tends to be lower in US midterm elections than in the presidential elections.
Turnout in the last two midterms was 52 per cent in 2022 and 53 per cent in 2018, according to the US Census Bureau.
But with the presidency on the ballot, 65 per cent of eligible voters turned out in 2024 and 67 per cent in 2020.
Latest opinion polls indicate that Democratic voters are more likely to turn out than Republicans this year.
Election analysts have cautioned that such Democratic constituencies as young, Black and Hispanic voters have historically turned out at lower rates in midterm elections.
And surveys show persistent skepticism among these groups towards both parties, especially over the cost of living.
If turnout among those groups falls short of expectations, Democrats could underperform on election day.
Polls close in six states
Polls have closed in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
These are the first states to finish voting. The next batch of poll closures will take place at 12:30am Irish time in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia.
Meanwhile, some of the TV networks are making their first projections.
NBC projects Democrat Mark Warner will defeat Republican Bert Mizusawa to win another term in the Virginia senate race. Virginia is a solidly Democratic state, so no big surprise there.
NBC also projects Republican politician Hal Rogers will win re-election in Kentucky’s 5th congressional district, rated as a solidly Republican district by analysts.
Meanwhile, Democrat Morgan McGarvey is projected to win Kentucky’s 3rd congressional district, rated as solidly Democratic district by analysts.
These results offer an early snapshot of the contests shaping the battle for control of Congress.
Democrat Jon Ossoff projected to win re-election in Georgia senate race
Democrat Jon Ossoff is projected to win re-election in the Georgia Senate race, according to NBC News.
Georgia was rated by analysts as a Democrat-leaning state, so it’s not a big surprise. It was one of the few states where Democrats had a money advantage in the final stretch and had moved off the board for Republicans.
Our Washington Correspondent Keith Duggan recently profiled Ossoff, an emerging Democrat star who has become a chief thorn in Trump’s side.
Is Florida a sign of things to come for Trump?
Florida’s 4th congressional district was a race on few people’s radar; it was rated as likely Republican by the non-partisan Cook Political Report.
But, with over 90 per cent of the vote counted, the race is unexpectedly close with the Democratic candidate, LaShonda “LJ” Holloway leading by one percentage point.
Many other Democrats in the state look set to retain seats, or are projected to win marginal contests, despite redistricting efforts by Republicans.
First ‘flip’ for Democrats as Roy Cooper wins senate seat in North Carolina
Democrat Roy Cooper has won election to the US senate representing North Carolina, defeating Republican Michael Whatley.
Cooper’s victory gives Democrats a key pickup in their quest to wrest senate control from Republicans.
The seat was open because Republican senator Thom Tillis opted not to seek another term.
Cooper is a former governor and state attorney general.
Whatley is a former state and national Republican Party chairman who ran with US president Donald Trump’s support.
Trump braces for ‘bad night’
Donald Trump is preparing to dampen expectations for the Republicans, White House officials have told NBC News.
Officials are trying to lower expectations about the party’s performance nationwide, based on early results. One official said the president was bracing for the idea it “might be a really bad night” for his party.
Democrats gain momentum in battle for control of Congress
Democrats have secured a series of early victories and strong showings in states and districts where Republicans have won by large margins for years.
As of 2.30am Irish time, Democrats flipped the US Senate seat in North Carolina and retained control of seats in Georgia and New Hampshire, according to projections
Florida has provided an fascinating insight into the Democrats’ resilience: two Democratic incumbents retained their House seats even after their districts were redrawn to favour Republicans.
In addition, Democrats flipped their first House seat of the night in western North Carolina.
It is early and analysts caution about a “blue mirage”. But there are hopeful signs for Demcrats that a politcal earthquake may be on the way.
In Texas and South Carolina, Democrats have fielded strong and well-funded senate candidates against Republicans considered their party’s weakest nominees. In each, the Democratic candidates are posting margins unthinkable for their party in counties that have reported the vast majorities of their votes.
Trump, meanwhile, is watching the election results from the White House and posting criticism of the Fox News coverage on his social media site. He celebrated a Republican victory in Guam but has yet to speak at length about results in the 50 states.
Full results won’t be known until well into the morning -- and possibly not for days, especially if many of the races are close.
James Talarico on course to take first senate seat for Democrats in Texas since 1994
James Talarico is hoping to give Democrats their first statewide victory in Texas since 1994.
While Texas has been considered a toss-up state by analysts, TV networks are recategorising it as “leaning” towards Talarico.
It the trend holds true, it would be a sensational win for the Democrats and a big boost to their chances of taking control of the US senate.
As things stand, Talarico’s rival Ken Paxton would need to win 61 per cent of the remaining vote to catch or overtake James Talarico, who leads.
Paxton, a staunch conservative with US president Donald Trump’s backing, has faced controversy over his impeachment on bribery and corruption charges in 2023, though the state Senate acquitted him.
Democrats on track to win House and need net gain of three more seats to win US senate majority
All eyes are US senate contests in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. The Democrats need a net gain of three more seats to control the senate.
Democrats have picked up one seat in the House and held on to several battleground districts. They need a net gain of just two more seats to take the House majority.
Overall, Democrats are on track to win the national House popular vote by 12 per centage points, according to estimates from the New York Times.
That would be the largest popular victory in the national congressional vote for either party since 1982 — back when Democrats ran up the score nationwide with overwhelming support in the south of the country.
Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms is first Black female governor in US history
Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms has won the race for Georgia governor, defeating Republican Rick Jackson and flipping control of the battleground state office for the first time in 24 years.
Bottoms, the former mayor of Atlanta and a former Biden administration official, overcame a huge spending disadvantage against Jackson, a wealthy executive who pumped more than $100 million of his own money into his campaign.
She is the first woman and the first Black person to be elected governor of Georgia. She is also the first Black female governor in the country’s history.
Ossoff calls Democratic wins a rebuke of ‘incompetent’ Trump
Speaking to a raucous crowd in Atlanta, Democratic senator Jon Ossoff described the midterm results as a defeat for the term-limited president, entering his final two years in office.
“In sweeping and decisive victories, the American people have rebuked the depravity, corruption and incompetence of a failed lame duck president Donald J Trump,” Ossoff said.
He added that the country’s politics have been “small and selfish, bought by big money, unmoored from fixed moral principles, and resigned to intractable division.”
He called for healing “brokenness” in the country, not just pushing back on the president.
In sweeping language, he said the wealthy had benefited from inside information and favors while families suffered with “higher and higher” bills.
Trump’s reaction to the early results
US president Donald Trump has been railing against TV coverage of the results during the night, including Fox News.
His latest comment on the Truth Social Network is the first to focus on the results.
“I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”.
The US president spent the campaign asking supporters to vote “as if he were on the ballot”, telling a rally crowd this summer and TV viewers on Monday night to “pretend I’m on the ballot.”
Talarico wins Texas for Democrats in seismic upset
Democrat James Talarico has defeated Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race. It gives Democrats their first statewide victory in “ruby red” Texas since 1994.
It is seismic upset and a sensational win for the Democrats in what was billed as the most expensive US senate race in history. It also provides a big boost to the party’s chances of taking control of the US senate.
Ken Paxton’s loss is a dramatic political failure for Elon Musk, who spent over $200 million to boost Paxton. Musk financed a barrage of anti-Talarico adverts, and spent at least $44 million on a voter-contact campaign in the state.
Paxton, a staunch conservative with US president Donald Trump’s backing, has faced controversy over his impeachment on bribery and corruption charges in 2023, though the state Senate acquitted him.
Our photographer and video journalist Chris Maddaloni has sent these images from Austin, Texas, where Talarico supporters are celebrating.
Sherrod Brown reclaims Senate seat in Ohio, a key victory for Democrats
Sherrod Brown, a former Democratic senator from Ohio, will represent his state again after unseating senator Jon Husted on Tuesday, according to latest projections.
Brown’s victory in one of the midterms’ key races flips a seat central to the Democrats’ quest to retake control of the US Senate.
Brown (73), will return to Washington two years after he was defeated by senator Bernie Moreno of Ohio. His comeback reflects just how much the political environment has changed since the Republican Party swept into power in 2024.
Democrats set to regain control of US Senate and House
The Democrats are set to win a majority in the US Senate, according to a projections from TV networks and AP.
The party needed to defend all of its seats make a net gain of four seats from the 35 seats up for re-election to reach a majority of 51 seats.
It means the Democrats are now projected to control both parts of Congress - the US Senate and the House of Representatives.
This shift could have a significant impact on Donald Trump’s presidency, with a Democratic majority making it more difficult for the US president to advance his policies through Congress.
“Democrats have taken back control of Congress,” said Hakeem Jeffries, who is likely to ne the new speaker of the House in January. “We’re going to end this national nightmare.”
Trump says he will accept election result
US president Donald Trump said he was “absolutely willing” to accept the results of the midterm elections, and was prepared to work with Democrats.
“We’ll, you know, look forward to working with them,” he said in a phone interview with The New York Times. “We’ll probably work something out.”
However, in a social media post later, he posted a picture of a red hat with the word “Veto” emblazoned across it.
Trump blamed Republican losses on the fact that he was not on the ballot, and called his decision to go to war with Iran a “very wise decision.”
The US president spent much of the midterm campaign asking supporters to vote “as if he were on the ballot”.
Trump also said he had no regrets about endorsing candidates such as senator Darline Graham in South Carolina and Ken Paxton, the Republican attorney general of Texas, who both lost their US Senate bids.
Josh Turek flips US Senate seat in Iowa in another seismic victory for Democrats
Josh Turek, a Paralympian and Democratic state representative, flipped Iowa’s open Senate seat on Tuesday, according to projections.
He overcame Ashley Hinson, a third-term Republican, in one of this year’s most high-profile battleground races.
Turek’s victory came in a state that US president Donald Trump won three times, including by 13 percentage points in 2024.
It delivers Democrats a seat which was seen as crucial to the party’s fight for control of the Senate and signals a backlash to president Trump’s policies.
How will Democratic control of Congress affect Trump?
Democratic control of Congress will give the party veto power over US president Donald Trump’s judicial and administration nominees as well as greater weight in fights over spending.
Democrats have said they will not approve additional funding for the war in Iran or Trump’s immigration crackdown.
With leadership of committees, Democrats will also have the authority to subpoena administration officials and others to follow through on investigations they have promised to pursue.
The loss could prompt Republicans to try to push through some of their priorities in the coming weeks.
Donald Trump: ‘I’m a little surprised. I thought they’d do better.’
Donald Trump called in live to talk to Fox News about the results a few minutes ago.
“I’m a little surprised,” he said. “I thought they’d do better.”
Trump spoke as if what just happened was not a major rebuke of the majority of his agenda and reissued lines from his rallies and his media appearances.
Of Democrats, he said: “They’re in control, but they’re not in control”. He emphasised that he will veto whatever legislation gets passed.
Trump told the Fox News interview, Bret Baier, that he doesn’t intend to make changes to his Cabinet. “It’s just a point in time, Bret,” he said. “There was a mood in the air.”
Republican senator Susan Collins concedes defeat in Maine race
Veteran Republican senator Susan Collins has conceded defeat in Maine’s Senate race.
Collins, who has represented Maine in the US Senate since 1997, was seeking another term in office.
Her defeat marks another significant setback for Republicans as they face a wider battle to retain their influence in Congress.
Maine has been a closely watched state in the fight for control of the US Senate.
Troy Jackson’s near certain victory adds to the series of Democratic gains in this year’s midterm elections.
‘A nightmare scenario for Donald Trump’
Keith Duggan, our Washington Correspondent, and video journalist Chris Maddaloni are in Austin, Texas, where James Talarico has become the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in decades.
“What’s happened here is emblematic of a night that’s gone beyond the wildest dreams of the Democratic Party,” says Duggan.
“They have flipped states in Kansas - the first Democratic senator since 1932; they won in Ohio; they have won in south Carolina, where Annie Andrews has taken the seat formerly held by the late Lindsay Graham.
“It’s been a nightmare scenario for Donald Trump and the Republican Party. He asked voters to make this a referendum on himself, to pretend that he’s was on the ballot, and really, it’s been a repudiation of many of his policies, and maybe of Trump himself, as a force of nature in U.S. political life.”
We’ll publish Keith Duggan’s analysis on the results shortly.
James Talarico: ‘Tonight we defeated Goliath’
Democrat James Talarico has won the US Senate race in Texas, breaking a 38-year drought for his party in the Republican stronghold and delivering a stunning blow to Donald Trump.
Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton, the state attorney general and a staunch ally of the US president, in one of the most closely watched contests of the midterm elections to decide control of Congress.
“Tonight we defeated Goliath,” Talarico said to a jubilant crowd his election night party in Austin. “All the money in the world is no match for the people of Texas.”
The result has significant implications for control of the US Senate, where Republicans were defending a narrow majority, and complicate Trump’s efforts to advance his agenda during the final two years of his presidency.
The Democrat’s victory signifies a rupture in the political landscape in Texas, the country’s second biggest state, which Trump carried by nearly 14 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.
Talarico (37) will become the Senate’s youngest member and replace John Cornyn (74) who lost a bruising Republican primary to the scandal-plagued Paxton, whose nomination bolstered Talarico’s appeal to Republican and independent voters.
Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian, former middle school teacher and state representative, built his campaign around economic concerns, Christian faith and a message of political unity.
