SSIA splurge to pay for big-ticket items

Cars, holidays and home improvements will form the basis of the €5.2 billion spending splurge that will follow the conclusion of the Special Savings Incentive Accounts (SSIA) scheme in 2006 and 2007, according to research from Goodbody Stockbrokers.

The broker estimates that €14 billion will be released into the economy over a 12-month period as the five-year Government-sponsored scheme moves towards a close.

While much of the windfall will be re-invested, the flood of ready cash will also translate into a concentrated spending boom, Goodbody believes. The broker, which has used a 2003 tns/MRBI survey as the basis for its analysis, is expecting the property market to be the main beneficiary of SSIA funds.

While the 2003 poll identified property investment as the biggest draw for the windfall, however, Goodbody believes that falling rental yields will have taken the shine off the sector by 2006. The relatively small average sum to be paid to each investor - €13,673 - is furthermore too small to create real ripples in the housing market, the broker concludes.

Goodbody estimates the amount placed in investment property will be less than half of the €4.1 billion that an extrapolation of the poll would suggest. The difference will transfer directly into other types of consumption, Mr Hunt believes.

Investment property aside, the broker sees €1.6 million of the SSIA payout going on home improvements, holiday homes and mortgage repayments.

On the consumption side, Goodbody sees cars among the most alluring spending options. Conservative estimates suggest that some €1.1 billion will trickle through the motor trade and create lengthy waiting periods, according to the analysis.

Goodbody sees a further €1.6 billion being spent on holidays, although again it points out that this is conservative. In general, the broker says, people will be more inclined to spend their SSIA money than they might like to admit in advance.

SSIAs will begin to mature in the spring of 2006, with 65 per cent concluding in the early months of 2007. More than 42 per cent of accounts will mature in April 2007 alone, creating a €6 billion injection for the economy in one single month.

Goodbody say this will be compounded by the fact that lower savers - considered more likely to spend their SSIA funds than save them - generally waited until the deadline to get involved.