NI business fears return to full scale violence

THERE are growing fears among the Northern Ireland business community that yesterday's attack on the Law Courts in Belfast could mark another step in a gradual return to full scale violence, and that it could have serious implications for economic growth.

The local chairman of the Confederation of British Industry, Mr Bill Tosh, described it as "a huge disappointment", and said that it appeared to end any prospect of a restoration of the IRA ceasefire.

"The basic prerequisite for growth is the cessation of all violence," Mr Tosh said.

"That is the only way we are likely to achieve the rate of growth which would allow us to make progress on problems like long term unemployment.

"There have been encouraging signs, such as the likely end of the BSE crisis, and the 45 per cent growth in North South trade which has taken place over the past few years. But after what happened yesterday it's very hard not to feel despondent about the future."

Industrial Development Board chairman Mr John McGuckian said that overall, the outlook for 1997 remained positive. He said that economic trends in Northern Ireland reflected the buoyancy in the UK, and he paid tribute to the efforts made by local companies in improving quality, service standards, product innovation, and their performance in overseas markets.

Mr McGuckian said that confidence in the local economy had been strengthened by investments by major international corporations such as Ford, Emerson Electric, Seagate Technology, Gallaher, AVX and Fujitsu.

In the nine months from April to the end of December foreign owned companies announced projects worth around £450 million sterling. There was also a very encouraging level of investment by local companies over the same period - more than £55 million across a wide range of industries, especially in the poultry and seafood sectors."

He said that the investments showed that Northern Ireland companies were continuing to strengthen their overall competitiveness in international markets.

"These trends have been apparent in recent surveys by the CBI and the PA Consulting Group, which projected a strong rise in orders, in vestment, and employment over the next 12 months, and from the business secured by companies taking part in IDB trade missions, which is well ahead of targets set earlier in the year.

The outlook is not so buoyant in the construction industry. The director of the Construction Employers' Federation, Mr Tony Doran, said that growth was likely to be inhibited by tighter budgets in the public sector and by strong competition within the industry.

"The private sector has done very well over the past four or five years," Mr Doran said, "but there's now a problem of land scarcity, which will have an effect on the level of output and on prices. In the commercial sector the problem is the possibility of a return to full scale violence. We have seen major projects like the Hilton Hotel and the new headquarters for BT, but given the events of the past week, I wouldn't say that we were very hopeful about the prospects for further growth."

Last year was disappointing for the tourism industry, with the end of the ceasefire leading to a sharp reduction in visitor numbers. But the chairman of the Northern Ireland Tourist Board, Mr Roy Bailie, said that the NITB's decision to participate as full partners in the Tourism Brand Ireland initiative was the most exciting development for many years, giving access to markets which would not have been possible in the past.

"In the Republic of Ireland and Scotland, tourism accounts for between 5 and 7 per cent of GDP," Mr Bailie said.

"In Northern Ireland the figure, including both visitors from outside and domestic tourism, is 2 per cent, generating income of around £27 million, and supporting over 12,000 jobs.

"If we had a level playing field - a permanent ceasefire, meaningful political progress, and a resolution of the marching issue - I see no reason why tourism could not produce a GDP figure of 5 per cent. That would generate an additional £500 million a year, and create around 20,000 new jobs."