Members of building societies awaiting the word of windfall

The windfall for Canada Life's 54,000 policyholders who are getting free shares - including the 30,000-odd carpet-baggers, sorry astute investors, who rushed to take out with-profits policies last year - inevitably focuses attention on who might be next to demutualise and give their members a one-off windfall.

After the conversion of Irish Permanent and First National, there are now only two Irish building societies left and of these the EBS remains resolutely opposed to demutualisation.

The EBS, reasonably enough, prefers to give its members cheaper mortgages and better deposit rates that the dubious attraction of a one-off windfall through free shares. But the argument that cheaper mortgages are a far better long-term bargain than free shares did not prevent Irish Permanent and First National members rushing to get their snouts into the free shares trough.

Irish Nationwide is another matter and Michael Fingleton has made no bones about his wish to see legislation change to allow the building society to demutualise without the tiresome restriction of a five-year takeover-proof period. Most in the industry believe that if this restriction was lifted, the Nationwide would convert to a plc quickly.

But the Government seems to be in no hurry to lift the five-year restriction and there is a view among the policymakers that there is no argument to be made for changing the law simply to allow a building society to make itself more attractive to a buyer.

And what of the remaining life assurers which might demutualise. The two big British life companies in the market, Standard Life and Scottish Provident, are still resolutely committed to maintaining their mutual status. And certainly, given the extraordinary success of Standard Life's greenfield mortgage banking business in Britain, there is no obvious financial reason for conversion to plc.

Equitable Life is one of the minnows in the Irish market, but has marketed itself aggressively in recent years with billboards proclaiming the virtues of having no shareholders to keep happy or dividends to pay out. Equitable has been one of the most vocal proponents of mutuality, but will the current case in the British High Court force it to change its commitment to mutuality?

Losing that case would oblige Equitable to pay the full terminal bonuses on guaranteed annuities in some of the group's pension plans. Equitable had proposed to cut the bonuses it had originally promised, a move that enraged policyholders affected who felt that Equitable was welching on promises made when they sold the policies.

The implications of losing that case are enormous, as Equitable does not have the reserves to meet the enormous cost of paying the terminal bonuses in full, and this could force the champion of mutuality into a merger or takeover it would otherwise avoid like the plague.

Even if Equitable does win its case in London, there is a strong view that its reputation in Britain has been irreparably damaged and the only way forward may be to look for a friendly merger partner.

Equitable's Irish policyholders might not be directly affected by the London court case - a decision is expected by the end of the month - but they may end up being the next group to get windfall payments.