Markets

Sterling slumps against euro amid investor jitters over Brexit

Barnier delivers downbeat assessment about chance of deal

The British pound fell 1 per cent to a six-week low against the euro on Monday.

Mon Dec 7 2020 - 11:36

The British pound fell 1 per cent to a six-week low against the euro on Monday as investors became more fearful about the chance of a Britain and the European Union failing to agree on a Brexit deal as last-ditch talks resumed in Brussels.

The sharp drop was a complete U-turn in market sentiment from Friday when sterling rose above $1.35 for the first time this year.

The EU's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, was "rather downbeat" about the chance of a deal, a senior EU diplomat said. British prime minister Boris Johnson and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen will review the situation on Monday evening.

The pound was steady overnight but started to fall in early London trading, dropping sharply not long after when The Sun newspaper reported that Mr Johnson was ready to pull out of Brexit talks “within hours” unless the European Union changes its demands.

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Earlier this morning the pound was down 0.9 per cent down against the euro at 91.06 pence - its weakest level in six weeks - and 1.2 per cent down versus the dollar, at $1.328.

"Markets are increasingly jittery to bad news having been willing to look through much of the negative headlines last week," said John Goldie, FX dealer at Argentex. "The suggestion that we are 'hours' away from pulling out of discussions has had the inevitable impact on the rates but I'd wager 'hours' will pass this morning without the fulfilment of the ultimatum," he said.

Volatility

“No party involved wants to be seen to be the first to concede and, actually, all the recent theatrics are indicative of the fact that the end is in sight and while both sides remain at the table I suspect a deal of sorts remains the clear favourite outcome,” he added.

Sterling implied volatility gauges with overnight and one-week maturities jumped to their highest since March, indicating that traders are bracing for future price swings .

Risk reversals - a derivative used to hedge risk - also surged, having more than doubled in the past two weeks . In recent weeks, sterling traders had been more optimistic about the chance of a deal being struck. CFTC positioning data showed that, in the week to December 2nd, speculators’ cut their net short position on the pound to its lowest in five weeks .

"Traders are not expecting no-deal, but hopes for a deal look increasingly compromised," said Jeremy Stretch, head of G10 FX Strategy at CIBC Capital Markets.

Analysts said they are now looking to the EU leaders summit on December 10th-11th as a possible deadline by which point a deal could be reached. The UK’s draft Internal Market Bill - which would undercut bits of the Brexit divorce settlement - is due back before the parliament late on Monday. - Reuters

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