Equity analysts' spin hides deeper malaise

If one does not read the business pages carefully, sifting through the cheery commentaries offered by financial analysts who earn their living selling optimism, one could be forgiven for thinking the stock market is generally doing okay. Of course, this has been a bad week, in common with a few others this year. Some observers quickly blamed Thursday's rout in the market on the crisis in the Middle East. Rising oil prices, uncertainty, inflationary pressures - that's what caused the problems. But it will all be temporary and the worst is over, they said.

Don't believe it.

The rise in crude oil prices has without doubt had a negative effect on the market. Historically, the last three dramatic rises in oil prices have been followed by recession in the US. But a look at some of the top stocks in the market shows a decline this year that crosses boundaries and sectors.

Let us start with the indices before turning to specific stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost 14.4 per cent of its value since January. The Nasdaq Composite is down 39 per cent from its March 10th peak and the Standard & Poor's 500 is down 14.4 per cent from its 52-week high.

Any notion that the market sell-off this year has been confined to high-flying technology and Internet stocks is not supported by the facts. It is true that these stocks have been battered. For example, former Internet darling Red Hat is down 80 per cent and Amazon.com is trading at $26 a share, down from its high of $113. Meanwhile, Yahoo! fell another 13.4 per cent on Thursday, bringing it to $55 a share, down from its peak of $250 a share.

The figures for the major companies of the "new economy" bring no comfort either. Microsoft is down 53 per cent this year, Nokia is down 38 per cent and AOL is down 32.8 per cent. Lucent has plummeted by 69.4 per cent, while Apple is down 68 per cent.

However, the truly disconcerting news comes from the stocks that are meant to be the least volatile, those of the older companies. AT&T is down 53 per cent this year, while Wal-Mart, the giant department stores group making inroads in Britain and Germany and with reported plans to enter the Irish market, is down 36.2 per cent.

Maytag, the manufacturer of large domestic appliances, is off 42 per cent, and Home Depot, a chain of DIY stores to which many investors fled as a safe haven, fell 28.7 per cent on Thursday after a profit warning.

"The uncertainties have escalated and we're seeing the bluest of the blue chips coming up with disappointments," PaineWebber senior investment strategist Ms Mary Farrell told the New York Times.

Why has it all happened and what can investors expect from here on in?

The most sobering analysis says the market's performance this year is the result of a combination of factors, most of which show no signs of immediate reversal. Corporate earnings and revenues have slipped and will continue to do so as the economy slows. The falling euro has contributed to depressed profits from the European and Asian operations of many multinationals. Oil prices have surged largely because of rumours of an oil shortage, but the tensions in the Middle East will continue to have a negative inflationary effect. (There was some relief in New York yesterday when Saudi Arabia said it was not planning an oil embargo against the US.)

It may pay to consider the comments yesterday of two of the bull market's most consistent enthusiasts. This week, they sounded as though they were each inhabiting different planets. Indeed, this reflects most analyst opinion, which is deeply divided.

Goldman Sachs strategist Ms Abby Joseph Cohen has been one of Wall Street's most influential voices, a consistent bull and a voice so credible that a comment from her often moved the market. During the Asian meltdown in 1998, Ms Cohen soothed investors with assurances that the crisis was temporary.

But Ms Cohen's efforts to calm jitters failed to impress last month and again on October 3rd. She declared yesterday that the Standard & Poor's index was undervalued by 15 per cent and reiterated her year-end target for the index of 1,575.

That is a remarkable view. the index would have to rise by 18.4 per cent in 2 1/2 months to reach that target. But as one observer put it: "The market is bigger than Abby Joseph Cohen. Unfortunately."

James J. Cramer is a money manager and editor of TheStreet.com, an influential online finance website. Mr Cramer contends that we are not yet at the bottom of this market. He recalls a similar situation in 1990 when everyone kept calling each new low "the bottom".

"At the bottom," Mr Cramer wrote yesterday, "Motorola reports a crummy quarter and the stock doesn't flinch because everybody expected it. At the bottom, you want to shoot your broker and you can't bring yourself to open the business pages."

We are not there yet, Mr Cramer muses. "It will come in time. No sense in killing your financial self in the interim."