Diplomatic efforts are intensifying to see whether there is sufficient support among European capitals to approve the controversial Mercosur trade deal.
France, a key vote that could decide whether the proposed trade deal is accepted or rejected, has asked for a December 20th deadline to be pushed back to let further talks take place.
The German government, a big backer of the deal, and the European Commission, the union’s executive branch who negotiated it, fear the agreement could be dead if it is not signed off by the end of this year.
Talks between capitals and EU officials went on over the weekend, with the commission and pro-Mercosur states making a push to convince Paris to drop its opposition.
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The deal, which follows 25 years of stop-start negotiations, would lower barriers to trade flowing between the European Union and Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay.
Irish and French beef farmers fear they will be undercut by cheaper imports of South American steaks and burgers.
EU officials are warning sceptics of the deal that the Mercosur countries have threatened to walk away from the table, if an agreement is not signed.
Mercosur needs the support of a weighted majority of the EU’s 27 member states to be approved. Ireland, Poland, Italy, Austria and France have voiced opposition in the past.
A vote may now take place during a two-day EU summit of national leaders which starts on Thursday. Delaying an EU vote until January as the French government has suggested, could be as good as rejecting the trade agreement, sources close to the negotiations said.
It is believed Poland and Hungary will not be moved in their opposition. However, Italy looks more likely to shift position and vote in favour of the trade deal, one source said.
The commission is pushing hard to bring France around to support the proposal, which would snuff out the prospects of a “blocking minority” big enough to reject the deal.
Speaking on Monday, Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Helen McEntee said the Government had been “very clear” about its concerns that the deal could be bad for beef farmers. “We have always said that we will work with like minded countries,” she said.
“At the moment we don’t have a date for a vote. We’re not clear when a vote may or may not happen, whether it’s before or after Christmas,” she said.
There is a possible scenario where Ireland could cast the swing vote that decides whether the deal is accepted or rejected, one source involved in EU-level discussions said. In such a scenario, the Government would face significant political pressure from Brussels.
The deal includes safeguards that would be triggered in the event South American beef ends up flooding any part of the European market, causing a drop in prices.
In a statement on Sunday, French prime minister Sébastien Lecornu’s office said the “conditions were not in place” for an EU vote before December 20th. The French prime minister said a decision should be delayed so more work could be done clarifying safeguards for European farmers.
Commission officials have argued that the increasingly competitive and unstable global economic order created by US president Donald Trump’s protectionist import tariffs and China’s aggressive stance on trade, means the EU cannot afford or turn up its nose at a huge new market in South America.
A commission spokesman said it was the EU executive’s “expectation” the deal will get over the line before the end of the year. Inking the agreement is a matter of “crucial importance – economically, diplomatically and geopolitically,” he said.
