Economists not fooled by rate increase denial

London Briefing/Fiona Walsh: Bank of England governor Mervyn King may have insisted that this week's widely-expected interest rate rise is not a "done deal", but you'll be hard-pushed to find an economist who does not believe that, by one minute past midday on Thursday, UK interest rates will be standing at 5 per cent.

Indeed, an extensive Reuters poll of City of London economists ahead of the rates decision showed all 58 expect the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee to raise rates from their current 4.75 per cent.

At 5 per cent, rates will be at their highest level since 2001. And while the increase might come as no surprise to economists, it will prove a nasty shock to many of Britain's increasingly debt-laden consumers.

Years of rising house prices, easy credit, relaxed mortgage lending and now a fast-track route to personal insolvency have already mixed into a toxic cocktail. Higher interest rates will be the final, lethal ingredient.

Some blame the banks for imprudent lending; others say it is up to the consumer to show some restraint. But wherever the fault lies, the end result is a nation staggering under a £1 trillion debt burden.

The warning signs are everywhere: it emerged last week, for example, that Abbey, Britain's second-largest provider of home loans, will now lend house buyers earning £50,000 or more up to five times their single or joint salaries.

This is a significant relaxation on the traditional measure of 3.5 times salary and means that a couple on a joint income of £50,000 who borrowed the maximum £250,000 would have to meet monthly repayments of £1,400 - and that is before any interest rate rise.

The country's largest mortgage lender, HBOS, is at the same time planning to offer mortgages that allow house buyers to borrow more than their home is worth - up to 125 per cent of its value.

Such mortgages have become increasingly popular in recent years, as first-time buyers struggle to get on the housing ladder. But they create instant negative equity for home owners - where the size of their loan is higher than the value of their house - and leave them dangerously exposed to a fall in house prices.

Meanwhile the country's mounting debt problem was graphically illustrated last week with official figures showing a 55 per cent surge in the number of people who have become insolvent over the past year.

Almost 28,000 individuals filed for insolvency in England and Wales in the third quarter of 2006, up 5.7 per cent on the previous quarter and 55.4 per cent higher than a year earlier.

The increase has been driven by record numbers opting for "Individual Voluntary Arrangements" (IVAs). These are seen as a far easier option than bankruptcy, as debtors are allowed to reschedule their payments and typically walk free of their debts after five years. By 2007, it is estimated that as many as 100,000 over-stretched consumers will have opted for IVAs.

One of the reasons for raising rates on Thursday will be to reign in inflation, which remains above the government's 2 per cent target. The last rate rise, in August, failed to have the desired effect, and if this week's increase proves equally ineffective, then a further rate hike could be seen in early 2007.

For someone with a mortgage of five times salary, that really would be bad news.

Proof, if anyone has yet to be convinced, that the internet is turning the media world upside down came last week in a stark prediction that Google's advertising revenues in the UK will outstrip those of Channel 4 this year.

The man making the prediction was the broadcaster's chief executive, Andy Duncan, so one imagines he knows what he's talking about.

Mr Duncan said the increasingly powerful US search engine will make £900 million from advertising in the UK in 2006 - double what it made the previous year - and ahead of the £800 million figure estimated for Channel 4.

If Google continues to grow at that rate, it will not be long before it overtakes ITV, the troubled broadcaster which is still searching for a new chief executive. And, as television viewers increasingly opt to get their entertainment online, the figures underline just what an uphill task the new ITV boss will face.

It's not just in media but also the retail sector that the internet is rewriting the rules of the game. Not only have retailers such as Tesco, Argos and Dixons got their internet acts together, so consumers are confident their goods will be delivered in time, but those consumers are now surfing the net at high speed thanks to a flurry of cut-price broadband offers from the likes of Carphone Warehouse and BSkyB.

All of which means internet shopping in Britain is forecast to surge 40 per cent to a record £7 billion in the 10 weeks running up to Christmas, according to Interactive Media in Retail Group.

That equates to an average of £4 million every hour, day and night, in the 10-week run-up to December 25th. No wonder the Channel 4 boss is worried.

Fiona Walsh writes for the Guardian newspaper in London