ECB expected to deliver interest rate cut today

The European Central Bank is expected to deliver an interest rate cut today but the prospects remain that it will defer reducing…

The European Central Bank is expected to deliver an interest rate cut today but the prospects remain that it will defer reducing it for another fortnight.

The ECB will also be unveiling some design changes to euro notes as well as new security features to combat fraud at the press conference today.

Most economists predict that a cut of a quarter of a percentage point to 4.25 per cent will be agreed by the governing council in Frankfurt today. However, others such as AIB chief economist Mr John Beggs are concerned that it will postpone the decision.

Many analysts believe the ECB will need more time to hammer out a consensus and prime markets for a move.

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"I think the ECB will need some more time to reach a consensus," said Mr Michael Schubert, economist at Commerzbank. Mr Stefan Bielmeier, economist at Deutsche Bank, said he expected the ECB to use markedly softer language at its press conference today and trim rates two weeks later.

This view may have been underlined by Bundesbank president Mr Ernst Welteke, the first ECB board member to outline his views in over three weeks.

In a speech in Frankfurt, Mr Welteke repeated that the ECB's mandate was to preserve stable prices and it neither was able nor intended to fine tune the economy.

He also echoed the ECB's line that its monetary policy was not restrictive and that interest rates, in particular long-term rates, remained low.

Some market players saw his remarks as a sign that the ECB was not in a hurry to cut.

Mr Beggs said he would not be surprised if the ECB waited until September.

"The likelihood is only 50 per cent. Its August report made it clear it does see weaker economic growth ahead but, as Mr Welteke pointed out, its brief is inflation and not stimulating economic growth."