The magnificent one: Apple is winning by sitting out the AI spending race

Apple has essentially become a hedge against the AI trade

Apple chief executive John Ternus. Photograph: Frederic J Brown/AFP via Getty
Apple chief executive John Ternus. Photograph: Frederic J Brown/AFP via Getty

Forget the magnificent seven. Apple has become the magnificent one.

Up over 25 per cent in 2026, the iPhone maker is back on top of the stock market, with a valuation of $5 trillion putting it ahead of Nvidia.

Creative Planning strategist Charlie Bilello recently noted Apple was the only magnificent seven stock to outperform the S&P 500 this year.

The contrast with 2025 is striking. “AI is turning Apple into a market ‘loser’”, headlined Axios in July 2025, a message echoed by Bloomberg (“Apple faces calls to reboot AI strategy with shares slumping”).

Criticised for spending too little on AI, Apple now benefits as investors fret about how much its rivals are spending. Apple generates more free cash flow than any other magnificent seven member, while avoiding the AI spending binge “draining” its peers, says Bilello.

Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta spent a combined $202 billion on capital expenditure in the third quarter alone, more than double the year-earlier figure. Concerns over Alphabet’s cash burn sent its shares down 19 per cent in October, their worst-ever monthly performance.

Apple, which reported earnings on Monday, has essentially become a hedge against the AI trade, outperforming the Nasdaq-100 by almost 20 percentage points over the past six months.

Given its recent run, with shares up 25 per cent since June and $1 trillion added to its market value, Apple has arguably done well simply to hold on to those gains amid the recent market turbulence.

Ironically, the flight to safety has not come cheap. Apple trades at 36 times expected earnings, almost twice the S&P 500 multiple. Apple’s AI issues remain, but its reluctance to spend heavily is looking less foolish as the bills mount up elsewhere.

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