The Government and its money Ministers, Simon Harris and Jack Chambers, will go to great lengths to highlight how people will benefit from the raft of measures announced in the budget.
But, despite all the money spent, it’s clear almost nobody will be better off in 2027.
Geopolitical unrest and the spike in the price of pretty much everything will more than cancel out the welfare and allowance increases, as well as the tax changes central to what could be termed Schrödinger’s budget – one which is simultaneously generous and mean.
The big winners – if that’s not too strong a word – will be couples in a household where both people earn more than €50,000 a year.
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As had been widely flagged, the entry point for the higher rate of income tax has climbed from €44,000 to €46,500. It means the annual tax bill of people at the top rate will fall by €500 a year.
On top of that, an increase of €125 in both the personal and PAYE tax credits will be worth another €250 to an individual.
According to Harris, the combined benefits for a double-income household earning more than €100,000 will be €1,500 annually.
[ Budget Calculator 2027: Here’s how this year’s budget will affect your incomeOpens in new window ]
There has also been a tweak to the ceiling on the second band of the universal social charge (USC), which is worth around €20 a year. However, to get a more accurate measure, the PRSI increase that kicked in this month has to be added to the mix.
Over the course of next year then, the tax bill of a double-income household on the average industrial wage of just under €55,000 each will fall by just over €1,300.
The other headline changes include a €10 hike in the State pension and broader welfare rates, while an annual cost-of-disability payment will be worth about €500 to 240,000 qualifying people.
The income disregard for carer’s allowance is rising by €150 to €1,150 for a single person and by €300 to €2,300 for a couple. The child support payment will rise by €6 with the living alone allowance climbing by €3 per week.
The Government has also given the green light to a 79 cent increase in the minimum wage, which will take the rate to €14.94 from its current rate of €14.15.
And then there is fuel.
That was always going to be a hot topic in the budget and while there was no room for the universal energy credits of times past, there will be some modest relief for some people.
Reductions in the carbon tax on home-heating oil for the lifetime of this Government will save about 700,000 households between €50 and €100 a year. The fuel allowance is to climb by €5 per week to €43 per week, with a higher income threshold for single people over 66 of €641, up from €534.
The temporary reduced fuel excise rates have been extended until February 28th, with a “gradual and responsible restoration” in four phases leading to a complete restoration by June 30th.
The vehicle registration tax relief for electric vehicles is also being extended until the end of 2028, but the flip side of that will see the tax for “more pollutant cars” – or nine of the top 10 sellers in Ireland – going up by 1 per cent to “incentivise purchase of low-emissions cars”.
It seems inevitable that the tax cuts will make many of the headlines in the hours and days ahead.
The €10-per-week increase in welfare and pension payments, along with the money spent on supporting those on lower incomes to heat and light their homes over the winter months, will also occupy minds.
But one cohort will see many of the tax benefits and welfare supports pass them by.
Up to 400,000 people earn between €35,000 and €44,000. Many of them will probably be taking home too much in pay to benefit from the increase in allowances and too little to benefit from the widening of the lower rate tax band from €44,000 to €46,500.
They will see their annual tax burden fall by €250 thanks to the increase in their tax credits and will make marginal gains from the changes to the ceiling on the second USC band, but that will be pretty much that.
The news is indisputably worse for Irish smokers and vapers, with an increase of €1 on a box of 20 cigarettes and a 20 cent-per-ml tax on vapes, adding about 40 cent to a small, single-use disposable vape.
Context is key when discussing the budget.
Grocery inflation is likely to add about €500 on to household bills in 2027, while the higher cost of heating and lighting our homes as well as keeping our cars on the road will cost about €800 more. Then there are insurance products and other everyday costs that have to be added to the bottom line.
As he came to the end of his budget speech, Harris stressed that the State “cannot do it all but must do what it can to help people in the here and now, and plan for the future”.
The question many will be asking now is: has he done enough?
