The balance of power in the European Parliament is set for a hard shift to the right after elections in June, according to a study forecasting results from across the continent.
Populist parties critical of the European Union are set to come first in nine countries, including Austria, Belgium, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland, and to come either second or third in a further nine countries including Germany and Spain, according to the study commissioned by the European Council on Foreign Relations.
The forecasts indicate that a coalition of conservatives, the centre-right, and hard-right populists may hold a majority in the parliament for the first time, with far-reaching implications for the EU’s ability to pass laws, particularly on green, progressive and foreign policy issues.
“In general, it’s going to be significantly more difficult for the European Parliament to pass legislation, because you have more and more people who are essentially opposed to the very idea of the European Union passing legislation in the first place,” said Kevin Cunningham, a lecturer in politics and a lead author of the study.
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“Climate action may be one of the more regrettable casualties,” he said.
The centre-right European People’s Party, of which Fine Gael is a member, is still forecast to be the largest political group, though with a reduced number of seats. The centre-left group, the Greens, and the centrist Renew Europe party of Fianna Fáil are all set to shrink.
Far-right candidates are expected to be elected in large numbers in France, Germany and Italy, potentially tipping the balance of power in the parliament into new territory.
Based on voting records, the forecast predicts that a majority in the new parliament will support very restrictive immigration policies, while potentially blocking legislation on addressing climate change or attempts to sanction countries such as Hungary for backsliding on the rule of law.
[ European Parliament elections: Who are the likely runners and riders?Opens in new window ]
There is also set to be a larger number of MEPs who are sympathetic to Russia. The study forecasts that a majority in the parliament will still favour helping Ukraine, though national parties may soften their support as they respond to how the electorate has voted.
The forecast for Ireland is somewhat out of step with much of the EU, with the largest number of MEPs forecast to be elected in the Left group, in a mix of Sinn Féin and Independent candidates. The number of Fine Gael MEPs is forecast to fall, while Labour is projected to win back one seat and the Green Party to drop from two seats to one.
“Ireland is slightly different,” Cunningham said, putting this down to constituency dynamics, the role of Independents and the strong advantage of incumbent candidates. “It will remain the case that the Irish MEPs are more progressive.”
Nevertheless, current polling and voting history suggests there is a “clear opportunity” for a conservative-minded, anti-immigration candidate in the constituency of Midlands-North-West, and potentially also in the Connaught-Ulster region, according to Cunningham.
The election takes place from June 6th to 9th in votes across the EU and is to be held in Ireland on June 7th, in tandem with local elections.
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