Donald Trump confirmed on Sunday that he has spoken to Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. But as the United States continues to build up its forces in the Caribbean, all signs point towards an escalation of military action against the Latin American state.
Sabre rattling in the Caribbean
When Donald Trump announced on social media on Saturday that the airspace above Venezuela should be considered “closed in its entirety”, he seemed to signal that air strikes were imminent. But by Sunday, after six airlines suspended flights to the country, he was playing down the significance of his comments.
“Don’t read anything into it,” he told reporters on Air Force One.
Recent weeks have seen a massive build-up of US military power in the Caribbean, with the USS Gerald R Ford, the world’s biggest aircraft carrier, arriving two weeks ago. At least 10 other warships, a nuclear submarine and F-35 aircraft are also deployed and Roosevelt Roads Naval Station in Puerto Rico has reopened after more than 20 years.
READ MORE
Trump claims that this is part of a counter-narcotics operation, accusing Maduro of heading an alleged drug-smuggling cartel called Cartel de los Soles, which the US has officially designated as a terrorist organisation. US drug agencies believe that Venezuela is a transit route for 10-15 per cent of the world’s cocaine but that it plays no role in trafficking fentanyl, the opioid responsible for 70 per cent of drug deaths in the US.
Trump has claimed that fishing boats attacked by the US in the Caribbean in recent months were used by drug cartels but Washington has offered no evidence. Democrats and some Republicans in Congress have accused defence secretary Pete Hegseth of committing a war crime by ordering US forces to kill everyone on board a speed boat they attacked in September.
Successive US governments have been trying to topple Venezuela’s government ever since socialist Hugo Chávez became president in 1999. Trump has departed from tradition this time insofar as he has not taken the trouble to bathe his actions in the language of democracy promotion and human rights.
Maduro held on to power by stealing an election last year and his government has grown increasingly authoritarian as he has imposed neoliberal economic measures and repressed political opponents on the left as well as the right. Economic conditions are miserable, made worse by the impact of US sanctions, and nearly eight million people have fled the country.
Trump confirmed on Sunday that he spoke to Maduro earlier in November, although he declined to give any details about the call. But the Miami Herald reported that Trump demanded that Maduro should resign immediately and that the Venezuelan leader refused.
He wanted a global amnesty for himself and those around him and he wanted to retain control of the armed forces as the Ortega brothers did in Nicaragua after they lost power in 1991 but Trump said no, according to the newspaper. Maduro had already offered to open up all Venezuelan oil and gold projects to US companies, to give preferential contracts to American firms and to turn away from Russia and China.
Moscow and Beijing have shown no inclination to come to Maduro’s aid, not least because both are engaged in their own delicate diplomacy with Washington, Russia over Ukraine and China over trade and tariffs. Venezuela’s Latin American neighbours have also been reticent, although most have warned against any US military action.
The US has not yet deployed the forces it would need for a ground operation, much less a full-scale invasion of Venezuela. But it has the firepower in place to launch air strikes, most probably on targets close to the Colombian border where armed groups are involved in the drug trade.
Such action would almost certainly be in breach of international law and is unlikely to be enough to dislodge Maduro. But the military build-up is creating a momentum that Trump may find hard to resist.
Please let me know what you think and send your comments, thoughts or suggestions for topics you would like to see covered to denis.globalbriefing@irishtimes.com
