Philip Tetlock

10 results

Investing has a lot of the same features as poker, says game theorist Kevin Zollman.

Good poker skills certainly seem to help if you’re a hedge fund manager. A new study, Hedge Fund Hold’em, has found hedge fund managers who do well in(...)

“Market forecasts are particularly tricky. No one can see the future – the world is inherently uncertain and surprising things will happen.” Photograph: Shannon Stapleton/Reuters

“Forecasting: the attempt to predict the unknowable by measuring the irrelevant; this task employs most people on Wall Street.” The words of Jason Zw(...)

“Even if you had a crystal ball and knew exactly how the global economy would perform in 2018, you still could not be sure how this would impact on stock markets.”

For what it’s worth, Wall Street strategists predict the S&P 500 will advance at a more modest pace this year, rising about 7 per cent in 2018 com(...)

Donald Trump supporter Sal Oliva, who is gay and has a tattoo of Trump on his right arm. “When Islam meets gay people in Somalia or wherever, they get thrown off the roof. And you expect them to be different when they move here?”, he says. Photograph: An Rong Xu/New York Times)

Sal Oliva, a hotel worker and Uber courier from Staten Island, is ecstatic about US president Donald Trump’s executive order on immigration. So are Mi(...)

Forecasts in financial markets are heavy on caveats and surprises can happen

It is often taken for granted in financial circles that if you want to ascertain the likelihood of an event, you’re better off consulting market price(...)

Anti-Brexit supporters dressed as bananas protest in England as Boris Johnson MP was addressing supporters during a Vote Leave rally. (Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

Tired bull may get second wind Investors could be forgiven for thinking that the seven-year bull market has, as billionaire investor Stanley Druckenm(...)

There’s an emphasis on radical uncertainty in Mervyn King’s new book “The End of Alchemy”. Photograph: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

The excellent new book by Mervyn King, former governor of the Bank of England, is inevitably noticed mainly for its views on banking regulation and t(...)

Psychic Grainne Ni Mhealoid   says Enda wants to “get into bed” with Fianna Fáil. But the cards generally suggest a coalition with Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil and a bunch of Independents or People Before Profit. “A three-way thing.” Photograph:Dave Meehan

Before there were wonks, pollsters and pundits, political leaders consulted oracles or ruminated on animal entrails. Few do this nowadays (apart from(...)

Wall Street strategists are as likely to underestimate bull markets as they are to overestimate bear markets. Photograph: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

Wall Street strategists expect stocks to climb next year, although many expect returns to be muted, while precious few are pounding the table for equi(...)

How will markets go? Forecaster Robert Prechter warned that the Dow Jones would fall below 1,000 in 2010 – it has spent most of 2015 around the 18,000 level. Photograph: Jin Lee/Bloomberg

Market forecasting is a tricky business, with countless studies indicating we should be sceptical towards those who purport to know what the future ho(...)