Winning ugly will suit just fine for this one

RUGBY:We owe the Scots from last year and, irrespective of how I hope Ireland play, a controlled, winning bruiser is what's needed, writes LIAM TOLAND

‘WE’RE IN a sticky situation all right. This is the stickiest situation since Sticky the stick insect got caught on a sticky bun.” The lazy conclusion was that not one Scottish player would make the Irish starting team. This may be true, but closer examination of their “rows” tells a different story.

Before the team announcements on Wednesday, the odds were in Ireland’s favour with a plus five start for Scotland. This is always a very sticky fixture for the Irish, especially in Edinburgh. But Scottish rugby has no base and they are destroyed by injury, with their backline especially hit.

Yet after the announcements the odds, curiously, remained the same. Considering the arrival of Ronan O’Gara and Eoin Reddan, not to mention Tommy Bowe, and with seven Scottish changes, one could expect the bookies to push that plus five out to the high teens.

Maybe Scotland aren’t that bad. They have the second highest offload in the Six Nations thus far (Ireland are fourth). They have the most passes completed, Ireland are 83 behind. But crucially, Ireland are joined at the hip in first place for errors made. If you think Ireland have been making mistakes, then Scotland must have a factory on the pitch pumping them out.

We can’t rely on this trend continuing, but an error-strewn match will hinge on the outhalves. Declan Kidney knows Ronan O’Gara’s ability to exert control and use field position over the child who is Ruaridh Jackson at outhalf for Scotland will have the greatest influence over the fixture. It is no bad thing that Jonny Sexton sits out part of Sunday’s game. It will again afford him a huge learning opportunity. I learnt more from watching my immediate opponent (Keith Gleeson) than any coach could teach me.

Sexton, though, must have the utmost trust in Kidney’s judgment. How Kidney sells it to the outhalves is crucial. Just as crucial is the pitch time afforded Sexton (at least 20 minutes). O’Gara is class and deserves his start. Sexton is learning and shouldn’t be given a clear run in the 10 shirt. Kidney is the glue that will keep it all together. Trust is crucial, and if Sexton senses Kidney doesn’t trust him in Scotland, curtains.

So why the short odds? Scotland played great rugby in Paris and even in humiliation managed some rugby against the Welsh.

And so to the rows that have improved in the Scottish line-up. Their frontrow, with Moray Low in for “faith-tied” Euan Murray, is a massive improvement to their cause. Against Argentina last summer Low was towering. Alongside him Ross Ford has become much more active under Andy Robinson.

Secondrow Richie Gray gave an awesome performance in Paris. Neither of our secondrows is capable of mimicking his athletic, all-out ball-carrying and tracking back defence. With him Scotland run deep decoy runners from spots. The Glasgow Warrior is Too Tall (nickname) and has but seven caps but is well worth a close look. He wasn’t playing against Wales!

Maybe none of their pack would gazump our lot but they are far from weak. I expect them to be comfortable in the lineout and scrum and terriers around the park. Watch the Killer Bs in tandem with Gray.

Add in Mike Blair at scrumhalf instead of the lacklustre Rory Lawson and all of a sudden they look very sticky.

On the flip side, they were blown away by Wales’ variety of gainline carriers. When in possession, the Scots were panicky, exuding whiteline fever. With the hammering at home and another home game on Sunday this pressure will not help the fever.

Take one man, Gray, out and suddenly they had no punch in their play. Add in the missing Graeme Morrison and Thom Evans and they have less punch.

Mind you, I like the look of Max Evans on the wing. Scotland’s wingers are hungry and the team brings them onto the ball regularly. My concern for Jackson is a microcosm of Scotland’s challenge. The high-octane environment will force him to play rugby, too much rugby, and he will lack the experience to win the match.

In attack, unlike Wales, they simply died with the ball or, worse still, tried too hard and looked for miracle passes. And I was very disappointed with their backrow.

And the cabinet reshuffle has brought Sean Lamont into 12. He was Scotland’s best player off the bench in Cardiff but lacked a clever offload to unlock the Welsh. At 12 this is less important and he will surely target O’Gara. Losing outside centre Joe Ansbro, the Damien Traille of Scottish rugby, is no negative for the Scots.

I’m delighted for Gordon D’Arcy, who could have been an easy scapegoat from the Aviva. He has for many years punched well above his weight and added real oomph to our attack. The pace of the arriving ball was far too slow for him, especially in Rome, to gain any attacking foothold. Reddan may change this, Stringer certainly will.

That said, Fergus McFadden looked a better bet for the bench; having played on the wing and centre this season he represents a meatier impact than Paddy Wallace. Given a choice, if Luke Fitzgerald became injured, I’d prefer Bowe or Earls at 15, allowing McFadden onto the wing ahead of Wallace.

No amount of “they’re crap” talk will convince me that this will be anything but a win-at-all-costs fixture. However, under Robinson they will maximise every advantage they have. To date Ireland haven’t.

We owe the Scots from last year and, irrespective of how I hope Ireland play, a controlled, winning bruiser is what’s needed.

Cut your cloth Ireland and drive it over the bar, but don’t lose sight of the future in doing so.

PS: As always my home work for this article takes me through the highways and byways of YouTube. As I meandered through various clips I bumped into something very blue: “Leinster’s Glory - A new song for Leinster Rugby?”

I believe the great Luka Bloom is involved. What do you think?