Who has the most favourable path to the World Cup final?

The 2026 World Cup is the first to intentionally separate the top four seeds and the top four sides have played ball, with Spain (1), Argentina (2), France (3) and England (4) all topping their groups and ending up in their expected paths.

There were few major upsets in the group stage, while the likes of Turkey and Uruguay disappointed, they were not considered major contenders to win the trophy. Portugal finishing in second place instead of Colombia in their group, however, has taken away the possibility of a Messi-Ronaldo clash in the quarter-finals and taken the Portuguese away from Argentina’s side of the draw.

Who has the most favourable draw of the biggest teams?

The failures of Turkey, Uruguay and the underwhelming performance of Portugal have all benefited Argentina, who now face Cape Verde and should they win, they will face the winners of Australia and Egypt. In the quarter-finals, their opponents would be Switzerland, Algeria, Colombia or Ghana. The most likely opponent there would be Colombia, who should not be underestimated, but as the Financial Times journalist Simon Kuper said: “No quarter-finals are easy. But some quarter-finals are easier than others.”

Who has the toughest draw?

France arguably have the toughest route to the final stages, playing Sweden then, should they win, potentially Germany in the last 16. Netherlands or Morocco are potential quarter-final opponents. Portugal have moved into Spain’s side of the draw, although on current form they would not be guaranteed to beat Croatia, who have been excellent in World Cup knockouts in the past two tournaments, reaching the semi-finals and final. Should Spain overcome Austria and potentially their old Iberian rivals, then they would be considerable favourites against USA, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Belgium or Senegal.

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What could England’s path to the final be?

Thomas Tuchel’s side face DR Congo in the last 32 and should they win as expected then they could face the hosts Mexico in Estadio Azteca. Mexico have lost only two competitive games there in their history, so it won’t be easy. Then they could play Brazil in the quarter-finals, although Ivory Coast or Norway might have something to say about that. Argentina could lie waiting in the semi-finals if they get that far.