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Ken Early: Despite Ireland’s win, it’s probably best to hold off booking flights to America

Heimir Hallgrímsson’s decision to go with a 5-4-1 formation when a win was required made no sense

Evan Ferguson scores Ireland's goal during the World Cup qualifier against Armenia at the Aviva Stadium. Photograph: James Crombie/Inpho
Evan Ferguson scores Ireland's goal during the World Cup qualifier against Armenia at the Aviva Stadium. Photograph: James Crombie/Inpho

There is still a small chance that Ireland can snatch an implausible World Cup qualification, but playing like this, do we really even want to?

Heimir Hallgrímsson persisted with the 5-4-1 formation he had used in Lisbon – but was the system that nearly worked in a backs-to-the-wall survival job away to Portugal necessarily the right choice for a must-win home game against Armenia?

After 10 minutes it certainly didn’t look like it, as Armenia strutted around the pitch with their tails up, spraying it about, like a dominant skunk. But it was Ireland who were stinking the place out.

The talismanic Séamus Coleman took a boot in the face after two minutes as he went in bravely for a header and played much of the first half with cotton wadding stuffed up his nose. The many lengthy stoppages were the most memorable thing about the first half – Dara O’Shea, Finn Azaz and Tighran Barseghyan all needing treatment.

Azaz had caught Barseghyan on the head with his elbow, opening up a nasty cut, and the Armenian medical team took so long to bandage him up that the crowd got bored and started to boo them. This angered Barseghyan, who screamed at the Irish fans, seemingly offering to fight them. Hallgrímsson had noted on Monday that coach Yegishe Melikyan has infused Armenia with a new fighting spirit but this seemed excessive.

Barseghyan almost enjoyed immediate revenge on the crowd as Eduard Spertsyan volleyed wide from his cross, by far the best chance of the first half. The atmosphere sounded a bit like the hum of conversation in a crowded theatre before the lights go down and the curtain goes up. Except Ireland were already out there under the floodlights, supposedly fighting for a place at the World Cup finals.

Séamus Coleman collides with Armenia goalkeeper Henri Avagyan at the Aviva Stadium. Photograph: Niall Carson/PA Wire
Séamus Coleman collides with Armenia goalkeeper Henri Avagyan at the Aviva Stadium. Photograph: Niall Carson/PA Wire

There was a strange moment just before half-time when Coleman, desperate to spark something, set off on a Lewis and Clark crossfield dribble, ending up on the left wing as his team-mates watched him “like cows watch the train go by” in a phrase Pep Guardiola attributes to his grandfather. The unique move came to nothing.

Even the half-time boos were half-hearted, as most of the crowd seemed to have already joined the queue for the toilets. The stadium announcer tried to drown them out by reading out the scoreline in a quavering scream: what’s the point? In fact, the whole production of the match seemed calculated to irritate. What is the FAI’s obsession with hiring solo singers to turn our marching-band national anthem into a morale-sapping dirge?

The stats told the story – no shots on target, one corner, 47 per cent possession, and five defenders at home against a team ranked 103rd in the world. Surely Hallgrímsson would be forced into radical changes at half-time, as had happened in Yerevan, where he made two substitutions?

Those radical changes didn’t work of course, and maybe Hallgrímsson now either distrusts radical change, or at least fears looking ridiculous if he keeps having to rip up his game plan at half-time. In fact it was Armenia who made a change, Ireland, remarkably, persisting with the five at the back. Hallgrímsson’s priority here, as in Lisbon, was plainly survival.

A couple of minutes into the second half, Coleman followed in a looping Azaz header and barged deliberately into the goalkeeper in an obvious attempt to start a fight that might get the crowd and maybe even his team-mates going. He could not have anticipated that the Armenians would so enthusiastically take up that idea and run with it.

It was the 52nd minute when our old friend Barseghyan confronted Azaz out on Armenia’s right wing, muttered something at him, then headbutted him lightly but unmistakably in the face. Azaz, who was actually on the big screen at the moment of the headbutt, sank to the ground, knowing that VAR would take care of the rest. The red card was inevitable.

Armenia’s Tigran Barseghyan makes his way off the field after being shown a red card. Photograph: Ryan Byrne/Inpho
Armenia’s Tigran Barseghyan makes his way off the field after being shown a red card. Photograph: Ryan Byrne/Inpho

As had happened against Hungary, Ireland had been gifted the chance to play most of the second half against 10 men. With Armenia reverting to 5-3-1 it seemed obvious a system change should now happen, but Ireland took 12 minutes to make their first substitutions and when Troy Parrott and Chiedozie Ogbene replaced Coleman and Festy Ebosele the five at the back remained in place.

Whatever about the wisdom of the shape, the hooking of Ebosele seemed a weird decision as he had been the only Irish player who demonstrated the ability to run with the ball and beat his man. Still, soon after Azaz produced Ireland’s first genuinely nice piece of football with a spin and quick pass that put Evan Ferguson in one on one, but the centre forward shot straight at the goalkeeper.

Ferguson’s redemption came quickly: a corner, played short to Will Smallbone who whipped an inswinger towards the six-yard box. The Armenian defenders froze en masse, and Ferguson moved in to head past the keeper from point-blank range. This was the kind of goal Portugal kept scoring in their 5-0 win away to Armenia, but the first time Armenia had extended such generosity to Ireland.

Would Ireland chase much-needed goals against the decimated and now demoralised opposition, or would they settle for the ‘shitty 1-0 win’ Hallgrimsson had said he’d be happy with before the game? It looks as though 16 months of managing Ireland have purged the last dregs of optimism from Hallgrímsson’s soul, and he stuck with the back five.

Ireland should still have scored more, but Henry Avagyan in Armenia’s goal had a magnificent game, making implausible saves from O’Shea and Adam Idah.

One-nil seemed a good result, but then the news, filtering through from thousands of WhatsApps, of Hungary’s 91st-minute equaliser in Portugal: the reward they deserved for taking risks and playing with enterprise. Portugal had outshot Ireland by 30 shots to two: against Hungary it was 20 shots to 17. It’s pretty clear which of these teams deserves to finish in the playoff space, but in football “deserve” has nothing to do with it.

The task for Ireland now is to at least match Hungary’s draw against Portugal next month, then win in Budapest, possibly by several goals. Probably best to hold off for now on booking the flights to America.