Gerry Thornley: McCarthy and Frawley could be in line for All Blacks tour

Regrets? The four Irish provinces will have even more now, for it’s one of the cruelties of sport that the further a team advances into the latter stages of a campaign the greater the laments and questions if they then come up short.

Leinster’s defeat by the Bulls last Friday night at the RDS in the URC semi-finals wouldn’t have felt nearly as foreboding if, a fortnight earlier in Marseille, Wayne Barnes had awarded Michael Ala’alatoa a turnover penalty in the jackal for Leinster to hang on in that endgame against La Rochelle. Knowing they’d have a fifth star on their jerseys next season would have eased the pain considerably. Then much of the narrative would have centred around Leinster’s ability to find another way to win.

Instead, being slightly outpowered again in the respective endzones, where the Bulls’ route one approach was more potent, compounds that Champions Cup final defeat and endorses the Saracens/La Rochelle narrative which also takes in Ireland’s loss to France in the Six Nations.

It’s a pity, because Leinster scored more tries, including a couple of beautifully executed strike moves off lineouts, and took their seasonal tally to a whopping 135 in 27 games, yet have come up empty-handed. The inquest will be a painful one for, in truth, Leinster didn’t reach their customary heights in the Champions Cup final or the URC semi-final. Big players haven’t performed to their best in two huge games.

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Leinster had become accustomed to sending retiring legends off into the sunset by lifting a trophy and being handed a winner’s medal. This was no way to bade adieu to the likes of Devin Toner, Dan Leavy, Sean Cronin, Rory O’Loughlin and the Connacht-bound quartet, not to mention Felipe Contepomi, Denis Leamy and indeed Mick Dawson.

Next season will also mark Johnny Sexton’s last and however long Leo Cullen and Stuart Lancaster stay aboard, that will be quite a turnover in experience and leadership inside the organisation in a relatively short period of time.

Of course, this has happened to them before and they survived, but if Sexton was fit enough to be on the bench last Friday and it’s the penultimate campaign for Leinster’s captain and greatest outhalf ever, why not start him? Ditto Hugo Keenan, if he was fit enough to be 24th man? And did these selections send put the wrong signals to the 1/40 favourites and the right ones to the 14/1 underdogs?

While the Irish squad which travels to New Zealand on three separate planes next Monday and Tuesday probably would have felt the benefits had Leinster won the Champions Cup especially, at least there will be no risk of further injuries had there been an all-Irish final in the RDS next Saturday. One recalls how Joe Schmidt lost Johnny Sexton, the Kearney brothers and Luke Fitzgerald for the 2016 summer tour to South Africa after they were all injured in Leinster’s Pro12 Grand Final defeat by Connacht.

Still, it might have been no harm had Ulster earned a home final against the Bulls in Belfast next Saturday. After all their three finals since winning their last trophy in 2006 have all been against Leinster, be it Twickenham, the RDS (when Ulster had to sacrifice a home final as the Kingspan Stadium was being redeveloped) or an empty Aviva.

Ulster were unlucky to lose the finishing and X factor of Robert Baloucoune (and his apparent hip injury may well rule out Ireland’s best finisher form the New Zealand tour) in Cape Town last Saturday but when they didn’t take their chances in the third quarter or press home their numerical advantage after Adre Smith’s red card entering the last ten minutes, you sensed another big knock-out game might be slipping away to another late score. You also wonder when they might have a chance quite like that again.

For those players among the estimated 40 to be named around noon today for the forthcoming three-test, five-match tour to New Zealand, having more than two weeks before the opening game against the Maori may well prove a welcome chance to recharge batteries and revive form in an environment they know and like.

It’s also both a daunting and thrilling challenge, perhaps the most difficult tour ever undertaken by an Irish team in the pro era.

One of the other curiosities of their defeats by La Rochelle and the Bulls is how relatively light use Leo Cullen and the Leinster Think Tank made of their bench in those games. Three of their replacements were either given less than five minutes or no time at all.

The depth in the frontrow is a big issue for both Leinster and Ireland, witness how Andrew Porter and Tadgh Furlong had to go for 73 minutes in Paris, and as Furlong did again in Twickenham. In the absence of Marty Moore, arguably still Ireland’s second best scrummaging tight-head, even Tom O’Toole had to go 82 minutes in Cape Town last Saturday. But his performance, and the way he helped hold the scrum together, was further evidence that he could yet emerge as a genuine rival to Furlong in the next year.

The cupboard could also look a little bearer at hooker if the fears over Rónan Kelleher’s need for a shoulder operation are confirmed. When Kelleher was ruled out of the remainder of the Six Nations after first sustaining a shoulder injury in the round two game against France, Dave Heffernan was called up as a replacement while James Lowe, Jimmy O’Brien and Jeremy Loughman were additions to the original 37-man squad and with David Kilcoyne still sidelined, Loughman is again likely to be named.

Indeed, today’s 40-man squad is liable to again feature the vast bulk of those involved in the Six Nations apart from a few exceptions. All the signs are that Joe McCarthy’s increased game time with Leinster is in part because of the Irish management’s high hopes for the 20-year-old lock. After being involved as a development player during the Six Nations, Cian Prendergast may edge out Alex Kendellen and Jack O’Donoghue, who missed Munster’s last game of the season against Ulster with a back injury.

As Jack Carty underwent surgery on his wrist a week ago, there is a vacancy as the third outhalf and it could be that Ciaran Frawley’s ability to play at “10″, “12″ and “15″- as well as his all-round qualities as a runner, kicker and distributor — will see him named. Jordan Larmour’s timely return, and reminder of his game-breaking qualities, should also see him named, all the more so if Baloucoune is ruled out.

Possible Ireland squad for New Zealand tour: (Hookers) Sheehan, Herring, Heffernan. (Props) Porter, Healy, Loughman, Furlong, Bealham, O’Toole. (Locks) Ryan, Henderson, Beirne, Treadwell, Baird, McCarthy. (Backrowers) Conan, Coombes, Doris, O’Mahony, Prendergast, Timoney, van der Flier. (Scrumhalves) Gibson-Park, Murray, Casey. (out-halves) Sexton, Carbery, Frawley. (Centres) Aki, Henshaw, Hume, Ringrose. (Back three) Conway, Earls, Hansen, Keenan, Larmour, Lowry, Lowe.

gthornley@irishtimes.com