Munster's 13-year cup run to tip balance

RUGBY:Munster will win in France on Sunday and will do so for many reasons, writes LIAM TOLAND

WITH THREE minutes remaining in Rodney Parade I went searching for that well known mythical time-altering clock. I’d have even been satisfied by the stadium clock as I wanted to press the pause button and travel to Wales for a little chat.

Connacht were but one single point behind and were camped on the Dragons’ line. Given the same set of circumstances what would Ronan O’Gara or his old bullet stopper Jonny Wilkinson have done? It sounds terribly simple but Connacht having earned the right for a well deserved victory managed to drop their standards in all aspects of their play through poor ball placement and poor protection of the ruck and scrumhalf.

They compounded this by rushing the simplest of skills and all in an effort to drop a goal and win the match. It didn’t come and the Dragons got out of jail. Most annoyingly it was the easier aspects of the game that sunk them. In essence they failed to be predictable when it was required.

Fast forward to Sunday afternoon in Toulon and the same will certainly not occur if the opportunity presents to either side. The pause button will not be required in order to organise the players. Sides struggling for form and results like Connacht will no doubt moments later articulate what should have been done. All will have understood their role but they simply couldn’t patch it all together as a team when it really mattered.

This is a very key point for Munster face a side that play a very untypical French game but who fully understand each and every role. And in Wilkinson they have a fulcrum who is totally predictable and who can drop a goal with the least preparation.

With Wilkinson, Toulon’s patterns are predictable and anything predictable, regardless of competency, is surmountable. For instance, when playing for Leinster in Northampton some years back our scrum was positively demolished. Although winning we simply didn’t see their scrum coming or predict that Springbok World Cup winner Garry Pagel would single handily demolish us. Within six days the rematch occurred and with it a very stable scrum returned. With the aid of scrum coach Roly Meates and a very attentive pack we learned how to combat Pagel. It helped that Northampton repeated their technique (predictable) and that Emmet Byrne and co were very good listeners.

Over the weeks I’ve attempted to delve into the unsettled nature of Munster’s winning streak. They keep winning but somewhat bizarrely attract criticism. That said Munster will win Sunday and they will do so for many reasons. Toulon have won three of their four Heineken Cup matches. Ospreys are Ospreys and London Irish were unable to test them over the double fixture. Today’s analysis must be based on assuming that Philippe Saint-André sends out a competitive team which will include Wilkinson. Although to assume makes an “ass” out of “u” and “me”, I’ve no choice.

Munster will once again face the horror of opposition aiming to hurt their frontrow. The weeks in Munster have not been wasted and tactics will be employed to minimise Toulon’s influence, both legal and illegal. There’s no doubt in my mind that frontrows are exposing referees to a real horror. If you think that props facing a Garry Pagel or a Carl Hayman are going to do so legally then you are mad. If at first attempt you don’t succeed, then cheat. Expect the scrum clock to mount up. Paul O’Connell will add enormous strength. Munster will play the referee if required.

Although predicable, Toulon can punish. They do so through the repetition of predictable plays. Wilkinson returns even the best kicks with enormous height and precision. Toulon know this and will chase very hard to compete in the air or corral the Munster receiver into trouble. Because of this predictability from Wilkinson’s kicking Toulon in tight games tend not to counter-attack, electing for field position. Where penetration is not gained they will move quickly to the boot. Initially they will send fatties up the fringes and tend to take it slightly wider than Munster may be used to in the Magners League. Consequently Denis Leamy and backrow must space accordingly to protect his inside backs.

What of Munster’s style. O’Connell is so vital to their cause his name appeared twice in their travelling squad release. He is of course that important, particularly aiding Damien Varley out of touch. With Kris Chesney, Toulon rarely compete in the air which will give Earls a great chance of open space. Munster will have less pressure at the tail affording early arrival of the ball to the outside channel. Toulon almost never compete on their own line. They also put their scrumhalf in the tram tracks five metres from home. An error compounded by the Toulon blindside drifting into midfield. Remember Peter Stringer’s Millennium Stadium try over Biarritz. Munster have always produced front peels which have slipped out of fashion but Stringer’s try can be repeated.

Given a choice I would elect for Toulon’s predictability over Toulouse’s. Conversely Munster have their unpredictability and with that in mind Stringer must start and in midfield Lifeimi Mafi has much more to test Toulon. Sam Tuitupou is a tough tackle to make, purely because of its physicality but Mafi is a nightmare to track down. Both have obvious tackle techniques but Mafi must resist leaving a hole behind himself when hunting. This will be tested especially from the many Toulon short lineouts.

Inevitably they end off the top into Wilkinson who pops to Mafileo Kefu or Gabiriele Lovobalavu, their version of Tuitupou running hard at 10. However, Toulon will fix the Munster backrow by flying their blindside winger alongside Wilkinson.

I’ve long been a fan of their captain Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe but his flankers are no match for the Munster boys. Australian legend George Smith possesses outstanding talent and technique but is not as present as the fixture will warrant. Toulon are very dangerous but a 13-year Munster Heineken Cup run is much more so.

Weaknesses for this Ulster team are becoming less obvious to spot but they do remain. Let’s remind ourselves of Munster and Leinster’s horrible exit from Europe last season. Two extraordinarily-experienced European campaigners were hoodwinked. Ulster may cross tomorrow’s hurdle and will certainly next week but, as stated before, the oxygen is very thin in the play-offs. Outhalf still scares me as does their lack of oomph. But they are getting close.