Keating's day of reckoning approaches as parties prepare to battle for Central control

THE former Fine Gael and Progressive Democrats TD for Dublin Central, Mr Michael Keating, is the author of a thriller called Day of Reckoning.

The next Fine Gael convention in the constituency could well be just such a day for the man who has, in his time, been a Fine Gael junior minister for education, a very high profile lord mayor of Dublin (he really put the job on the map) and deputy leader of the PDs.

Although originally elected for Fine Gael, Mr Keating joined the PDs and then retired from the Dail before the 1989 general election. He later resurfaced as a Fine Gael candidate in the local elections and won a seat on Dublin's South County Council. He ran unsuccessfully for Fine Gael in Dublin South West in the last general election.

Now Fine Gael's front runner in that constituency is Senator Brian Hayes, and Mr Keating has resigned his council seat and rejoined the constituency party on his old Dublin Central stamping ground.

Although Mr Keating says he has not made up his mind yet, Fine Gael insiders report he is being courted assiduously to run, now that the former communications minister, Mr Jim Mitchell, has announced his retirement.

But not every Fine Gaeler in Dublin Central would welcome him on the ticket. Some still remember how he defected to the PDs in 1986 and held the seat for that party in 1987.

Another politician in Fine Gael's sights is the city councillor and former Labour Party member, Mr Michael Conaghan. The Fine Gael "dream ticket" is Keating and Conaghan, one on each side of the Liffey.

Mr Conaghan has also had approaches from Fianna Fail and Democratic Left but says he will have to consult his election workers.

He was originally a member of Mr Jim Kemmy's Democratic Socialist Party which was absorbed into the Labour Party in 1991. His political ambitions were not encouraged by Mr Joe Costello, who won a seat as the sole Labour candidate in Dublin Central last time.

He seemed a likely choice for Labour in the Dublin West by election earlier this year but did not receive any encouragement there from the sitting Labour TD and junior minister, Ms Joan Burton.

Labour sources point out he was on the party ticket in Dublin West in 1992 and withdrew at the eleventh hour for personal reasons.

Last Christmas he resigned from Labour and now finds himself one of the hottest properties around. The redrawing of constituencies has meant that Dublin Central is now divided 60-40 by the river Liffey and includes all of Ballyfermot on the south side.

Mr Conaghan lives in Ballyfermot and works as a teacher in Inchicore. In the 1991 city council elections he topped the poll with 2,130 votes. Small wonder that even the Fianna Fail leader, Mr Bertie Ahern, has made approaches to him.

There are two other Fine Gael "possibles" on the scene. Dr Pat Lee was a TD for the constituency from 1989 to 1992 and still has political ambitions although he is not well got with the party leadership.

Mr John Kearney, who was coopted to Mr Jim Mitchell's seat on the city council, declared his intention to seek a Dail nomination within minutes of Mr Mitchell's announcement that he was stepping down.

A recent Fianna Fail convention selected its only sitting TD in the constituency, Mr Bertie Ahern, as a candidate, but left open the other place on the ticket.

The Soldiers of Destiny are conducting a serious "trawl" to find a running mate for the party leader.

Fianna Fail should have won two seats in 1992 but the figures tell a tale of poor vote management. Mr Ahern secured 11,374 first preferences (more than 4,000 above the quota) whereas Dr Dermot Fitzpatrick got only 1,838 votes and Ms Olga Bennett 1,087.

Fianna Fail sources say the party is considering a long list of "possibles". They include Mr Conaghan and his fellow Independent on the city council, Mr Vincent Ballyfermot Jackson; Senator Marian McGennis, who lives outside the constituency in Blanchardstown; city, councillor and ex TD from the Liberties, Ms Mary Mooney; city councillor and ex Senator Olga Bennett; as well as assorted community activists and business people.

There was an informal approach to the broadcaster Joe Duffy, but nothing came of it.

The certainties for re election are Mr Ahern and the Independent TD, Mr Tony Gregory, who is still reaping the political benefits of the old "Gregory Deal" and has taken a high profile on the drugs issue.

Fianna Fail sources say the party has been "targeting" the Costello seat on the grounds that the Navan Road middle class vote will not be going to Labour, this time. Labour sources are deriving comfort from the Mitchell retirement and believe it will be very difficult for Fine Gael to hold its seat.

Sinn Fein has been extremely active in the anti drugs protests, and the odds are that Mr Christy Burke will improve on the 1,362 first preferences he got last time.

The former Workers' Party TD, Mr Tomas MacGiolla, has a strong base in Ballyfermot but the party may run him in Dublin West instead and Ms Linda Kavanagh could be its candidate in this constituency.

The new Green candidate, Mr Ciaran Cuffe, could mount a formidable challenge. In the last city council elections he got 1,141 first preferences. Ms Niamh Nic Mhathuna took over 500 votes as an Independent in 1992.

Nobody in this constituency seems to be looking forward to the election. As one weary candidate told me. "It's never fun in Dublin Central. It's always a hard fought one."