Italy may surprise the sceptics

As Italy suffered a fourth defeat in seven games since last September when losing 1-0 to Norway in Oslo last Saturday, many of…

As Italy suffered a fourth defeat in seven games since last September when losing 1-0 to Norway in Oslo last Saturday, many of the faithful back home simply gave up and changed television channel. Forty per cent more Italian sports fans opted to watch cyclist Stefano Garzelli wrap up the Giro d'Italia. To put it mildly, widespread Italian scepticism surrounds Italy's Euro 2000 campaign. At first glance, too, the scepticism is well justified. Not only has this side performed poorly throughout the last year but also these championships come at the end of a season when Italian clubs failed to get beyond either the fourth round of the UEFA Cup or the quarter-finals of the Champions League.

For some commentators, Saturday's lacklustre showing indicates that all their worst fears about Euro 2000 are about to be realised. Namely, that Italy will be the first big name to be eliminated and that their troubles will begin with their opening game against Turkey in Arnhem next Sunday. Furthermore, Italy suffered a double blow in Oslo as first choice goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon broke a bone in his left hand. Coach Dino Zoff immediately summoned AC Milan and Italy under-21 goalkeeper Christian Abbiati to replace Buffon, whose injury sees Fiorentina's Francesco Toldo promoted to first choice goalkeeper for the finals.

More than the loss of Buffon, however, Italians were disappointed by the poor quality of Italian play in a match in which the home side had the majority of the attacking play.

The reality of Saturday's game and of much of the last year is that Dino Zoff's side looks desperately short of quality in midfield, not to mention penetration in attack. The loss two weeks ago of Internazionale striker Christian Vieri did Zoff no favours. In Vieri's the absence, it is still unclear what Zoff's first choice attacking line-up will be against Turkey. Fabio Cannavaro, Alessandro Nesta and Paolo Maldini seem definite selections in defence, and whilst Gianluca Pessotto, Stefano Fiore and Gianluca Zambrotta seem sure in midfield, Zoff's ideal strike force remains a mystery.

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On Saturday, Italy started with AS Roma's Francesco Totti alongside Juventus striker Filippo Inzaghi before bringing on both Alessandro Del Piero (in place of Fiore) and Vincenzo Montella (in place of Inzaghi) in the second half. Neither combination appeared effective and many commentators argued, ironically, that Zoff should use his fifth striker, Roma's Marco Delvecchio - the only one of the five not to play against Norway - in Italy's match against Turkey.

Perhaps more worrying than this season's form is the lack of worldclass quality in the squad. Italy go into Euro 2000 with an injury question mark over the head of all-important captain Paolo Maldini.

Zoff, too, has perplexed many observers this season by his apparent refusal to trust to the playmaking talents of Totti, using him (if at all) as a striker and preferring instead Udinese's four-times capped Stefano Fiore.

If the latter, however, fulfills the promise already shown for Italy and if the Cannavaro-Nesta-Maldini back three plays to its best, then Italy may spring a mild surprise. They are unlikely to win Euro 2000, but they are equally unlikely to go out in the first round.