History points to Meath and Mayo

The way that Gaelic football eats its way into our hearts and souls is epitomised by this saga between Kildare and Meath. Already, it has assumed epic proportions in terms of the Irish sporting year and, to be honest, only a fool would state with absolute conviction the outcome.

We've seen in the two matches to date an awful lot of what is good in football, especially with regard to fitness levels. These two Leinster rivals lend themselves towards a fast-running game with tremendous support play and, if at times there is a tendency for too much short passing (especially from Kildare), they've nevertheless provided fantastic spectacles.

I expect another enactment tomorrow, a combination of great fitness with high levels of skill. And another high-scoring game. The reason for this is two-fold: firstly, the defences have been stretched to the limits by the sheer pace of the modern game and this creates a greater number of openings due to the deficiencies in close man-to-man marking; and, secondly, the ability of the respective sets of forwards to take their scores, not just from close range, but also from further outfield, as Jody Devine demonstrated so ably the last day. What of Kildare? Well, I believe this team has finally come of age. Mick O'Dwyer's first arrival as manager was probably badly timed. There were too many expectations, and the mainstays - the likes of Niall Buckley, Martin Lynch, Anthony Rainbow and Glen Ryan - were just too young back then. But it gave Micko a glimpse of the potential and his second coming has been perfectly timed to coincide with the growing influences of these players. When losing to Dublin in the early nineties they just weren't able to match them physically or mentally. It's different now. The resilience and refusal to surrender (a direct contrast to the Dublin battles) means Kildare are worthy title challengers. There is a lot more steel in the current team.

But then, Meath teams under Sean Boylan have always had that quality. Tomorrow, I expect to see them crowd centre-field (where Buckley and Willie McCreery have dominated for Kildare) with halfbacks and half-forwards in an attempt to win breaking ball.

Meath's half-backs will have a key role to play. Eddie McCormack and Declan Kerrigan have been extremely impressive, not alone with their pace and amount of off-the-ball movement, but also in creating and using such openings. I expect the Meath defenders to be much tighter tomorrow. They will have to be.

I don't think Kildare can afford to use the short-passing game too much this time round. Meath are most dangerous on the break - after intercepting a Kildare pass to counterattack and, to offset this, Kildare really should use the long ball, especially into Lynch, more frequently. A combination of the short and long game could be most useful.

Graham Geraghty's loss is a big blow to Meath. He didn't do too much the last day, but he managed to curtail Rainbow's incursions into attack. On his day, as many opposing teams have discovered in the past, he can literally take a game by the scruff of the neck and transform it.

Still, there is tremendous talent in this Meath team. Tommy Dowd, Trevor Giles and Brendan Reilly, in attack, are all coming into form at just the right time. All are proven match winners. All can be relied upon when the need is greatest. And Devine's inspiration in the first replay was quite remarkable and he is a marvellous asset to have sitting on your bench.

Another close encounter is, surely, on the cards. I don't go along with those who believe that Kildare have blown it - I think they have a very good chance of making the Leinster final against Offaly. However, I also think that Meath, who have been put to the pin of their collar so often and still survived, are the team that can make the greater amount of improvement. And, given their history, I have to side with them. Meath to win, narrowly. A few weeks ago, Clare played Sligo in a challenge - before they played Roscommon - and I remarked to one of my selectors that they were well capable of making the Connacht final. History shows that they did just that and, tomorrow, they face Mayo purely on merit.

Mickey Moran, I suspect, will be pleased that the "no hopers" tag has been pinned to them. It means that all the pressure is on Mayo to perform and, as such, Sligo can go out and "give it a lash". Sligo have some fine young players - indeed, in Eamonn O'Hara and Paul Taylor, they have two exceptionally talented forwards - and their greatest attribute is an ability to work for each other unselfishly. Their youthful approach, along with pace and skill, should present problems for Mayo. If they get breaks, anything can happen. But they will need to get plenty of quality ball into the forwards.

Yet, how can you go against Mayo? If anything, Mayo have progressed since last year and, a true sign of a good team, have learnt from their All-Ireland experience. Of course, the losses of Kevin Cahill and Colm McManamon are huge ones - but I believe they are too strong in too many areas to release their grip on the Connacht crown.

The holders' main source of progress appears to be in attack. I'll be interested to see how Ronan Goulding operates in the left corner and Kieran McDonald certainly seems to have a good, accurate left foot; the over-reliance on Maurice Sheridan's free-taking has gone. Also, I think Pat Fallon and Liam McHale will have too much power for Sligo around midfield.

Mayo can expect Sligo to come at them hard and fast in the early stages. However, I think Mayo's allround strength will be enough to grind out a comfortable enough win. Certainly, Mayo will be anxious to get back into another All-Ireland series and, in their minds, would have no reason to doubt that they can complete the job this year. (In an interview with Philip Reid)