High Chaparral may be O'Brien's bet

RACING: Figures matter in American racing - time ratings, decent splits and opening quarter-miles clocked in "22 and change". The stopwatch is the baseline of form study, the proof of what any horse can do. It is a reasonable, scientific approach, but it has one flaw: it takes no account of a trainer like Aidan O'Brien.

Pick through all the numbers on today's Breeders' Cup card and the puzzle remains the same. Just how many winners will O'Brien send out? He has the favourites in the Mile and the Turf, three with a good shout in the Juvenile and Hawk Wing in the Classic. He is the key to the Cup, and everyone knows it.

"Can we single Rock Of Gibraltar in the Pick6?," Bob Baffert, who will saddle War Emblem in the Classic, asked O'Brien during a press conference yesterday. Translation: is he a banker in the US equivalent of the Tote jackpot.

"You can if you like," O'Brien said, but, as ever, he did not seem too sure.

In fact, he seemed to think that High Chaparral (9.55 p.m.), the Derby winner, is his best chance at the meeting, and in a Turf race, where Golan is the only credible alternative, the hint must be taken. It is in the remaining races that Ballydoyle may struggle to impose the dominance it takes for granted in Europe.

That includes the Mile, in which Rock Of Gibraltar is a worthy favourite, but no betting proposition at around evens. He is the best horse in the race, without a doubt, and if they were running down the Rowley Mile at Newmarket you would back him with every penny. But around two tight turns from an outside draw it could be a different story.

Mick Kinane can call on deep reserves of guile and composure, but if the breaks do not fall his way he will be powerless.

Good Journey (7.35), who has an ideal draw in stall number two, is a solid each-way alternative, but this is more of a lottery than the betting might suggest, and it should be satisfaction enough for anyone if Rock Of Gibraltar could retire as a winner.

Perhaps the most interesting race on the card, and the best chance for a British-trained winner, is the Filly & Mare Turf. Islington, Gossamer and Kazzia represent Newmarket against Golden Apples, trained in California by Ben Cecil, Henry's nephew. Add in Banks Hill, who won the race for Andre Fabre last year but is now in the care of Bobby Frankel, and this is contest with few no-hopers.

On a simple point of value, it is tempting to put up Turtle Bow as an each-way bet, since she finished just a neck behind Kazzia at Belmont last month, but will probably go off at four times the price of the Oaks winner. At the same time, though, that form only highlights the chance of Banks Hill (8.45), who beat her soundly in the Prix Jacques le Marois.

Azeri (6.20) is reckoned to be a "lock" by most American pundits and should justify favouritism in the Distaff, but Composure (6.55) is a good alternative to Storm Flag Flying, an evens chance on the morning line, in the Juvenile Fillies'.

The Sprint may condense to whose turn it happens to be, as a list of usual suspects, including Kona Gold (the favourite for the race for the last three years), Orientate and Xtra Heat, tries to hit the gates running and scorch their way home.

Xtra Heat (8.10), who led to the final strides last year, has every chance, but this is not a race for more than pin money.

O'Brien, again, is the key ingredient in the two remaining races, the Juvenile and the Classic. Of his three runners in the two-year-old race, which he won last year with Johannesburg, Van Nistelrooy may be under-rated by the American pari-mutuel. Whywhywhy (9.20), though, could beat them all.

And so to the Classic, the most prestigious race in the calendar, and also one of the most valuable. Hawk Wing is far from a hopeless cause for Ballydoyle, since the combination of a searching pace, fast going and his first dose of Lasix, an anti-bleeding drug banned in Britain, should improve him by a couple of pounds.

But when they all knuckle down to chase $4 million, Medagia D'Oro (10.35) should grab the purse.