Seán Moran: All to play for in tight league campaign

Back at the start of the season, Monaghan manager Séamus McEnaney sounded like he was putting the best spin on a slightly disappointing draw in Omagh, against All-Ireland champions Tyrone, who were not long back from holidays.

“This is the best Division One campaign in 25 years. This is the cream of the cream in Division One as far as I’m concerned. I think there’s going to be an outrageous battle for teams to stay in it and stay on top of it.”

Now with just two series of matches left, he’s looking like a prophet. If the most newsworthy development of the campaign until the weekend was the dire form of Dublin, the top division is in for a lively fortnight with the Leinster champions back in the game and all but the top three of Kerry, Mayo and Armagh under the shadow of relegation.

There are sufficient matches scheduled among the relegation candidates for any of Dublin (two points), Kildare, Tyrone (three each), Monaghan (four) and even Donegal on five points to go down.

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Dublin play Donegal and Monaghan over the next two weeks, in Croke Park and Clones, respectively. It’s an interesting pair of opponents. Dublin’s record against Donegal in the league is strong and they haven’t lost this league fixture since 2007.

Monaghan are at the opposite end of the spectrum and have a strong record in the fixture over the past decade. In fact Dublin haven’t won any of the last three meetings and the most recent victory in 2017 was a late steal in Clones. Tyrone look in danger, as they have the hardest run-in with matches against the top two, Kerry away and Mayo at home. So any improvement on three points will be hard earned.

Kildare have been surprisingly competitive on their return to the top division with points earned against Dublin and Kerry. They conclude their campaign with a home match against Monaghan and away to Mayo whereas Donegal, on the periphery of the race, are away to Dublin and home to Armagh.

Monaghan have become practised at escaping relegation in recent years. The county has been in the top division since 2015 and survived last season’s play-off against Galway with an injury-time comeback – they trailed by five in the 68th minute – that forced extra time, which they held on to win.

At the top of the table the most likely final will be Kerry vs Mayo but Jack O’Connor’s team have to travel to Armagh next week, which could shake things up at the top. Mayo have matters in their own hands if they win their remaining matches, which will have a significant impact at the bottom of the table, as they have yet to play Kildare and Tyrone.

Dubs not relegated since 1995

In terms of absence from Division One, Dublin haven’t been relegated since 1995 and won the All-Ireland later in the year. They dropped along with then All-Ireland champions Down. By that year, however, Dublin had qualified for the league knockout stages for nine successive seasons but had endured disappointment in championship, especially for the previous four years and so there wasn’t any huge motivation to extend the spring season.

The other counties have been relegated from Division One in more recent times: Kildare (2018),Tyrone (2015), Monaghan (2011) and Donegal (2018). A lot of focus in Division Two has been on the relegation race because of the championship ramifications of dropping in all likelihood to the Tailteann Cup. But the battle for promotion is also compelling.

Galway are the only county on 100 per cent but they see out the campaign against the other top three counties, Derry and Roscommon in second and third place respectively.

Relegation effectively comes down to Down, Cork and Offaly, especially as there are two matches between them: Cork face Down and Offaly, home and away.

Division Three has traditionally been the most competitive in the league and this year is no different. Two points separate the top six teams, from Antrim and Louth – who play this weekend – on seven, Westmeath and Limerick on six to Fermanagh and Laois on five.

Wicklow look doomed on a single point whereas Longford, who they play this weekend, are on three, will be short odds to join them but the indenters have a potential lifeline with a final match against Laois. The story of Division Four was initially London’s big start and Tipperary’s poor form. While their fellow provincial winners from 2020, Cavan, were romping to promotion, Tipp struggled and dropped three points in their first two matches against Waterford and Leitrim but they came roaring back at the weekend with a win away to Cavan.

Now, clear in second place Tipp have promotion in their own hands, as do Cavan in first place.