Day to show real heart

Rugby: Love may be in the Parisian air on this weekend of all weekends but come 3 p.m. local time in the Stade de France this afternoon, in time-honoured fashion, Ireland will be greeted by the same old snarling French hostility. The organisers and television can tamper with the oldest of international competitions all they like, but some things never change.

The words "St Valentine's Day" and "Massacre" have been synonymous with high-scoring sporting mismatches ever since Al Capone decided it was a day for settling scores and one can almost hear them poised in readiness for this afternoon's encounter.

The last time the sides met, in the World Cup quarter-final in Melbourne last October, Ireland just about averted a massacre with three consolation tries after falling 37-0 down early in the second half. Even Eddie O'Sullivan admitted it was a largely meaningless comeback.

However, the Irish coach readily conceded yesterday the relatively recent memory of that game and the motivation to put it to right is an advantage. "We felt we didn't do ourselves any justice in that game and that's the thought in everybody's mind."

O'Sullivan was speaking at Ireland's eve-of-match press conference at their base adjacent to the magnificent sun-kissed gardens of the Palais Versailles, which had been delayed by over an hour. Initially a motorway traffic jam caused by a car crash had put them behind schedule, and en route from training they were obliged to alight from their coach when it became enveloped by burning rubber. "It is Friday the 13th," O'Sullivan said.

As the thousands of supporters, and in seemingly every instance their wives or girlfriends, throng the French capital, spring is also in the Parisian air this weekend, but better that than the end-of-campaign trek to Paris on which previous Irish teams have often suffered.

By popular consent, playing the French with a March sun on their backs is invariably more daunting, when the band plays, the cockerel struts his stuff, the tries mount up and Irish teams line up for a restart on the half-way line with the enthusiasm of men who'd just as soon hail a taxi home.

By then, Les Bleus are match-hardened and have usually hit a groove, as was the case in the World Cup, when they'd effectively been in camp for three months and on a roll.

In comparison to Ireland, with their Christmas get-together and a fortnight's preparation, France only came together for the first time since the World Cup this week and are relatively untried in every combination bar the back row.

France are more of an unknown quantity this time. How will the blooding of two new caps in their tight five affect their set-pieces? Individually the ultra-talented and dangerous Toulouse halfback pairing of Jean-Baptiste Elissalde and Frederic Michalak carry far more threat than their Irish counterparts and they have a physically stronger looking midfield as well as more of a cutting edge out wide.

However, mentally and physically, Ireland weren't right for that quarter-final. They lacked intensity and aggression from the first whistle and as Malcolm O'Kelly admitted in midweek, were even a little naïve when coughing up soft early tries. They know they can ill-afford to do that again, and you'd imagine will be less inclined to do so.

As England's defensive coach Phil Larder observed at the World Cup, Ireland were a little too predictable and patterned in constantly seeking out the outhalf channel patrolled by Serge Betsen and co. By setting wider targets themselves, Ireland may not outflank the French defence but the notion of Shane Horgan running at Christophe Dominici especially at least offers the prospect of more go-forward ball.

An Irish win is actually not beyond the bounds of possibility. After all, lest we forget, Ireland have won three of the last five meetings. But when all that is said and done, it's hard to see it happening without Ireland's trump card against Les Bleus, bearing in mind Brian O'Driscoll has scored six tries in his five games against the French.

Gordon D'Arcy is undoubtedly the form alternative, with a similar capacity to wriggle yards out of nothing, though you just hope he won't try to do too much. And with a proviso about the Irish defence out wide or off French pressure through the phases, you'd have to imagine that France will have more potency in their back row, through Imanol Harinordoquy and Olivier Magne, as well as Vincent Clerc and Nicolas Brusque out wide.

France traditionally start the championship slowly but, unnervingly, many of this French team seem bang in form (11 have reached the quarter-finals of the European Cup, compared to six of Ireland's team). But given Ireland's imposing early schedule, it's imperative O'Sullivan's side emerge today with a decent performance under their belts and their heads held high.

Sandwiched by this and a subsequent trip to Twickenham, next weekend's home game against a rejuvenated Wales looks like Ireland's pivotal game of the championship. Viewed in that context, Ireland would be more likely to win that game if they return from Paris relatively unscathed and settled, rather than bloodied and much changed.

A repeat, therefore, of the bloodless coup in Melbourne's Telstra Dome would be very disappointing. A win may be beyond them, but a performance shouldn't be.

Referee: Chris White (England).

Overall record: Played 79, France 45 wins, Ireland 28 wins, 5 draws.

Highest scores: Ireland 27-25 in Paris (2000), France 45-10 in Paris (1996).

Biggest wins: Ireland 24-0 in Cork (1913), France 44-5 in Paris (2002).

Last five meetings: (2000) France 25 Ireland 27. (2001) Ireland 22 France 15. (2002) France 44 Ireland 5. (2003) Ireland 15 France 12. (2003 - World Cup) France 43 Ireland 21.

Betting (courtesy of Paddy Powers): 1/10 France, 25/1 Draw, 5/1 Ireland.

Handicap odds (= Ireland +16pts) 10/11 France, 16/1 Draw, 10/11 Ireland.

Forecast: France to win.