I have a very positive feeling about this World Cup - and it is not just the bouncy atmosphere here in the centre of Berlin and the immediately impressive organisation that makes me say that.

The fact that we are back in Europe, playing in a real footballing country, in the right climatic conditions, at the right time of day and in front of fans who know their football should make a big difference. Then, too, watching and listening to coaches in their news conferences yesterday gave me the sensation that some teams will come out and really play. I have a hunch we may see much less negative stuff than at recent World Cup and European Championship finals.

I would even go so far as to suggest the record for the highest number of goals scored at a modern World Cup could be beaten in Germany.

Mind you, there at least two obvious practical reasons for making that prediction. Firstly, a World Cup, unlike the European Championship finals, always features some very weak sides guaranteed to concede a lot of goals -Angola, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Togo and Trinidad and Tobago look the obvious whipping boys this time.

Secondly, there is the new "Teamgeist" ball supplied by Adidas. I have had a look at it and kicked it about and it feels incredibly light, like somebody has taken a child's football and pumped it up too much. Steven Gerrard (Liverpool) tells me it really leaves your foot, especially if you hit across it. That means it will move about a lot in the air and do all sorts of weird and wonderful things. It is going to be happy days for the forwards with this new ball and that was confirmed recently by (Arsenal and Germany goalkeeper) Jens Lehmann who told me it moved around a lot in the air.

What about the tournament itself? I fancy Argentina to win. They look to me a complete side, with a bit of everything and a touch of steel to boot. They are strong collectively and individually and they have the right mentality.

Furthermore, they are one team who are not frightened of Brazil. I know Brazil are everybody's favourites but I feel this side is a bit unbalanced. Sure, their front four or five players - Ronaldhino, Kaka, Adriano et al - are awesome but some of the guys playing behind them are very ordinary. When the ball is in their half of the field, they are a bit nervous. Put simply, I see them as defensively weak and error prone. On top of that, I think a number of teams know exactly how to play Brazil.

It is hard to make a case for the home country. They have only one truly world-class player in Michael Ballack and, at the moment, he is ruled out through injury. Even allowing for both their terrific tournament record and home advantage, I do not see them going too far this time. I can see them going out in the second round, the round of 16.

I do fancy England, even without Wayne Rooney, in the opening games. The draw matters so much in World Cups and England, this time, have got a relatively easy one. You would expect them to win their opening games against Paraguay and Trinidad and Tobago and that could see them going into their third game against Sweden in a relatively comfortable position.

If it worked out that way, coach Sven-Goran Eriksson could rest some of his first team against Sweden and maybe give Rooney a badly-needed run-out, helping him get back to full fitness.

I think The Netherlands could be a side who will cause teams problems and be one other European teams will be keen to avoid. The problem for them, along with Argentina, of course, is they have a difficult draw in a group along with Ivory Coast and Serbia and Montenegro.

Mention of Ivory Coast prompts me to suggest I do not see them doing as well as many pundits are predicting. My feeling about sides like Ivory Coast and Ghana is that, in the end, you are only as good as your worst player and I suspect that both teams have some poor players in their starting line-ups.

Given these two sides are the strongest of the five African qualifiers (Angola, Togo and Tunisia are the other three), you can conclude I do not expect this to be a great tournament for the African countries.

As for the others, we have been saying for 20 years now Spain will have a good World Cup and then they always disappoint us. This time, though, we are expecting only disappointment, they look to me like a collection of individuals more than a team. Will coach Luis Aragones have the courage to drop his captain Raul, who looks out of form?

Nor do Italy inspire me with much confidence. I know everyone says Italy are usually a good, competitive, tournament team but I do not see it happening this time. It seems to me they lack the quality of previous Italian sides. In other competitions, Italy could afford to start slowly because they had the players to dig them out of trouble in later games but I do not see it working that way with this squad.

As for France, they look like a side that might, at best, make the quarter-finals. The good work of players like Makelele and Vieira can hide some serious shortcomings. In attack, Henry and Trezeguet does not work. Henry has to play up front on his own, otherwise his head goes down and he is not interested.

Two other considerations argue against France. For a start, their greatest player, Zidane, is at the end of the road. Secondly, I get the impression this is a team with little or no respect for their coach, Raymond Domenech. When that happens, the senior players on the team try to organise the side and run the show themselves but, in a World Cup, that can be very, very difficult.

My final thoughts concern the refereeing. We had some very poor refereeing four years ago in Japan and South Korea, so let's hope it will be better this time - more consistent and less whistle-happy. We saw in the Champions League final this year just how one refereeing mistake (the sending-off of Lehmann) can ruin a game.

Having said that, let the show begin.

1: Winners - Argentina

2: Runners-Up - England

3: Surprise Player - Joe Cole (right)

4: Surprise Team - USA

5: Tactical Novelty - None,

there are no surprises in football.