The State will reduce greenhouse emissions by just half of its 51 per cent target by 2030, Minister for Climate Darragh O’Brien has said.
In his clearest statement to date on the likelihood of achieving the ambitious target of cutting emissions by half compared with 2018 figures, Mr O’Brien has accepted there would be a significant shortfall. He said, however, that substantial and rapid reductions would be seen from the early 2030s onwards, once offshore wind power is added to the national grid.
Ireland’s national target is to reduce emissions by 51 per cent by 2030 compared with 2018. In 2018, Ireland’s total greenhouse gas emissions were 61 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. The then government committed to reduce it to 30 million tonnes by 2030. The shortfall from the target could mean the State will be liable for fines running to as high as €28 billion by 2030.
Talking about the percentage reductions, he said: “We’re probably projecting in the mid to high 20s in emission reduction until the end of the decade. It is a somewhat significant amount off that target.
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“The domestic target is 51 per cent. The EU target is 48 per cent but leaving that aside, we’re right to set exacting targets,” he said.
He added that the deployment and the electrification of offshore energy in the early 2030s would result in a “really significant step forward”.
He added, however, that although the 2030 target would not be met, all the indications were that emissions were going in the right direction.
“We are effectively looking at emissions that are now at a 35-year low, even though our population has increased by 1½ million people.
“We’re seeing sectors such as agriculture recording a 6.8 [per cent] reduction and showing reductions for three years consecutive.
“We know we won’t hit our 2030 [overall] targets. There are [sectoral] targets within that that we will reach.”
He pointed to the substantial potential generating capacity of the offshore projects now being planned in the Irish Sea. He said that two of those projects alone would be capable of generating 5 gigawatts of power between them. “On a normal day we wouldn’t use 5 gigawatts of power here in Ireland,” he said.
He did say that demand for electricity would probably double in the future. “We need those projects in play because offshore and onshore working together will make sure that we can have more energy than we actually need.”
The Minister said gas will still be required as a component and a backup. He said solar power had expanded at a pace that was unanticipated even until recent years.
“Eight years ago, 0.1 per cent of our electricity was generated by solar. And next year we could be close to 10 per cent. That’s where it’s going, and that doesn’t include the rooftop panels.”
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The Minister said decarbonising transport would present the biggest challenge. The big infrastructural public transport projects such as MetroLink, Dart Plus and the Luas extensions would be key to achieving emission reductions, he said.
On MetroLink, he said if things proceeded smoothly, contracts could be awarded as early as 2027.
Asked about when it would be delivered, he suggested that the project could be delivered in phases leading to earlier commissioning of the services.
“Phase one could be from the south of Donabate to O’Connell Street,” he said, giving an example.
He said the Luas extension to Finglas could go out for tender during 2026, allowing a possible start in 2027 and a possible completion date as early as 2030.
